Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold The Huns Esports, while the market favors HOTU (93%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold The Huns Esports (60%) · The Huns Esports at 7.5¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
The Huns Esports
5
The Huns Esports 60%
$2.2K
$48.97
7.4¢ → 7.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidThe Huns Esports at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors HOTU 93%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on The Huns Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlllCTR | The Huns Esportsavg 7¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$132 | 54% 302-256 (558) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | HOTUavg 92.7¢ | $102.63 | $100.8 | -$1.83 | 36% 15579-27522 (43101) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | HOTUavg 60¢ | $29.99 | $46.24 | +$16.25 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
 1am1bCTR | The Huns Esportsavg 40.2¢ | $124.52 | $23.25 | -$101.28 | 55% 190-154 (344) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | The Huns Esportsavg 5.9¢ | $6.68 | $10.52 | +$3.84 | 49% 7885-8203 (16088) |
Invested
$1,847.97
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$132
Record
54%
302-256 (558)
Invested
$102.63
Value
$100.8
PnL
-$1.83
Record
36%
15579-27522 (43101)
Invested
$29.99
Value
$46.24
PnL
+$16.25
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
1am1bCTRInvested
$124.52
Value
$23.25
PnL
-$101.28
Record
55%
190-154 (344)
Invested
$6.68
Value
$10.52
PnL
+$3.84
Record
49%
7885-8203 (16088)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.