Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold HOTU, while the market favors GamerLegion (54%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Tesla Cup Playoffs

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold HOTU (67%) · HOTU at 47¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 30

HOTU47¢GamerLegion53¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HOTU

Consensus Traders

HOTU 67%

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$91.13

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 46.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHOTU at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HOTU

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors GamerLegion 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

HOTU47%

GamerLegion54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GamerLegion3 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares10,790

Combined PnL+$40.83

HOTU6 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares19,739

Combined PnL+$50.29

GamerLegion — 33%HOTU — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	GamerLegionavg 51.7¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$58.74	54% 293-246 (539)
SatanishippieCTR	HOTUavg 51.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$20.4	48% 306-330 (636)
VI vibing123CTR	HOTUavg 48¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$185.11	52% 1554-1436 (2990)
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	HOTUavg 48.2¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$82.92	42% 118-161 (279)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	GamerLegionavg 53¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$15.58	50% 7297-7426 (14723)
VeryLucky888CTR	HOTUavg 48.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$26.83	58% 41218-29884 (71102)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	HOTUavg 48.7¢	$650.77	$647.44	-$3.33	47% 2443-2742 (5185)
MA manoamano	GamerLegionavg 52.3¢	$146.61	$144.29	-$2.32	51% 455-442 (897)
AC acorpCTR	HOTUavg 48¢	$129.12	$127.77	-$1.35	49% 618-635 (1253)

lllllllIlll

GamerLegion

Invested

$3,823.23

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$58.74

Record

54%

293-246 (539)

SatanishippieCTR

HOTU

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$20.4

Record

48%

306-330 (636)

vibing123CTR

HOTU

Invested

$2,538.64

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$185.11

Record

52%

1554-1436 (2990)

JohnnyWinsCTR

HOTU

Invested

$2,384.81

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$82.92

Record

42%

118-161 (279)

jakepaulthegoat2008

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,651.46

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$15.58

Record

50%

7297-7426 (14723)

VeryLucky888CTR

HOTU

Invested

$1,029.15

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$26.83

Record

58%

41218-29884 (71102)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

HOTU

Invested

$650.77

Value

$647.44

PnL

-$3.33

Record

47%

2443-2742 (5185)

manoamano

GamerLegion

Invested

$146.61

Value

$144.29

PnL

-$2.32

Record

51%

455-442 (897)

acorpCTR

HOTU

Invested

$129.12

Value

$127.77

PnL

-$1.35

Record

49%

618-635 (1253)

Research grade

NeutralHOTU at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

HOTU

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors GamerLegion 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HOTU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.