Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Heroic (67%) · Heroic at 63¢ · $69K held · ends Nov 15

Heroic63¢magic37¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Heroic

Consensus Traders

Heroic 67%

Total Value

$69.3K

Combined PnL

-$298.95

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 62.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHeroic at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heroic

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heroic63%

magic38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heroic6 traders

Total Value$42.7K

Total Shares68,841

Combined PnL-$92.81

magic3 traders

Total Value$26.6K

Total Shares70,907

Combined PnL-$206.14

Heroic — 67%magic — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Heroic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeroic 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000magic 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	Heroicavg 62¢	$27.9K	$27.9K	+$0.23	56% 393-309 (702)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	magicavg 37.8¢	$26.3K	$26.0K	-$214.9	55% 171-141 (312)
VI vibing123	Heroicavg 63¢	$7.6K	$7.4K	-$119.94	62% 1142-703 (1845)
JB JBucketz	Heroicavg 62¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$42.46	—
MA manoamano	Heroicavg 63.7¢	$934.04	$909.07	-$24.97	53% 32-28 (60)
SE sentrio	Heroicavg 62¢	$899.27	$906.52	+$7.25	42% 1054-1470 (2524)
relativesignificanceCTR	magicavg 37¢	$389.51	$400.03	+$10.52	55% 164-133 (297)
IW iWasEnough	Heroicavg 62¢	$267.92	$270.08	+$2.16	44% 20-25 (45)
fyrskenCTR	magicavg 37.9¢	$150	$148.24	-$1.76	50% 56-56 (112)

Wiretransferxyz

Heroic

Invested

$27,899.87

Value

$27.9K

PnL

+$0.23

Record

56%

393-309 (702)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

magic

Invested

$26,262.09

Value

$26.0K

PnL

-$214.9

Record

55%

171-141 (312)

vibing123

Heroic

Invested

$7,560

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$119.94

Record

62%

1142-703 (1845)

JBucketz

Heroic

Invested

$5,265.2

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$42.46

Record

—

manoamano

Heroic

Invested

$934.04

Value

$909.07

PnL

-$24.97

Record

53%

32-28 (60)

sentrio

Heroic

Invested

$899.27

Value

$906.52

PnL

+$7.25

Record

42%

1054-1470 (2524)

relativesignificanceCTR

magic

Invested

$389.51

Value

$400.03

PnL

+$10.52

Record

55%

164-133 (297)

iWasEnough

Heroic

Invested

$267.92

Value

$270.08

PnL

+$2.16

Record

44%

20-25 (45)

fyrskenCTR

magic

Invested

$150

Value

$148.24

PnL

-$1.76

Record

50%

56-56 (112)

Research grade

NeutralHeroic at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heroic

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Heroic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeroic 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000magic 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heroic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.