Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Heroic (83%) · Heroic at 69¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 15

Heroic69¢FaZe31¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Heroic

Consensus Traders

Heroic 83%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.4K

Combined PnL

$5.5K

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 68.5¢

+50% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralHeroic at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heroic

10 of 12 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heroic69%

FaZe32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heroic10 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares16,930

Combined PnL+$6.2K

FaZe2 traders

Total Value$885.49

Total Shares3,002

Combined PnL-$731.08

Heroic — 83%FaZe — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Heroic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperHeroic 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrHeroic 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeroic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heroic 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EZ Ezmoneyfornow	Heroicavg 35.4¢	$2.6K	$5.2K	+$2.6K	45% 26-32 (58)
AA aaaa298	Heroicavg 45.1¢	$2.4K	$3.8K	+$1.4K	2% 7-305 (312)
PN pnhctARB<$100	FaZeavg 22.7¢	$13.3K	$3.5K	-$84.77	57% 26-20 (46)
└ Heroic leg	Heroicavg 64.7¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$767.71
└ FaZe leg	FaZeavg 22.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$852.47
II iii252	Heroicavg 40.2¢	$6.7K	$1.0K	+$2.4K	1% 4-424 (428)
SU suntori	Heroicavg 75.8¢	$1.1K	$962.32	-$103.2	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
AO aomendushen008	Heroicavg 79.1¢	$1,000	$891.74	-$108.26	3% 17-473 (490)
latvian.demonCTR	FaZeavg 56.8¢	$1.1K	$563.27	-$520.32	14% 75-469 (544)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Heroicavg 70¢	$3.2K	$464.32	+$29.6	23% 72-235 (307)
└ Heroic leg	Heroicavg 70¢	$287.27	$281.13	+$120.09
└ FaZe leg	FaZeavg 29.7¢	$172.8	$183.18	-$90.49
KA KaczkaCTR	FaZeavg 48.8¢	$532.98	$322.22	-$210.77	10% 23-211 (234)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	FaZeavg 56.9¢	$473.27	$316	-$35.11	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
└ FaZe leg	FaZeavg 56.9¢	$223.96	$165.4	-$48.56
└ Heroic leg	Heroicavg 45.9¢	$119.12	$150.61	+$13.45
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	FaZeavg 47.8¢	$133.79	$147.1	+$13.31	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
└ Heroic leg	Heroicavg 43.2¢	$63.63	$85.41	+$21.78
└ FaZe leg	FaZeavg 47.8¢	$70.16	$61.69	-$8.48
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Heroicavg 50.8¢	$73.75	$96.97	+$23.22	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
VeryLucky888	Heroicavg 46¢	$212.96	$88.01	+$24.43	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Heroicavg 44.5¢	$38.22	$49.86	+$11.64	46% 643-756 (1399)
poshposh<$100	Heroicavg 45¢	$12	$15.47	+$3.47	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Heroicavg 45¢	$5	$6.44	+$1.44	38% 3822-6251 (10073)

Ezmoneyfornow

Heroic

Invested

$2,604.94

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

45%

26-32 (58)

aaaa298

Heroic

Invested

$2,415.8

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

7-305 (312)

pnhctARB<$100

FaZe

Invested

$13,304.93

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$84.77

Record

57%

26-20 (46)

Both legs:

Heroic$1,488.2764.7¢+$767.71

FaZe$1,689.1122.7¢-$852.47

iii252

Heroic

Invested

$6,702.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

4-424 (428)

suntori

Heroic

Invested

$1,065.52

Value

$962.32

PnL

-$103.2

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

aomendushen008

Heroic

Invested

$1,000

Value

$891.74

PnL

-$108.26

Record

17-473 (490)

latvian.demonCTR

FaZe

Invested

$1,083.59

Value

$563.27

PnL

-$520.32

Record

14%

75-469 (544)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Heroic

Invested

$3,235.74

Value

$464.32

PnL

+$29.6

Record

23%

72-235 (307)

Both legs:

Heroic$287.2770¢+$120.09

FaZe$172.829.7¢-$90.49

KaczkaCTR

FaZe

Invested

$532.98

Value

$322.22

PnL

-$210.77

Record

10%

23-211 (234)

NotJumpARB<$100

FaZe

Invested

$473.27

Value

$316

PnL

-$35.11

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Both legs:

FaZe$223.9656.9¢-$48.56

Heroic$119.1245.9¢+$13.45

topdogbigboiARB<$100

FaZe

Invested

$133.79

Value

$147.1

PnL

+$13.31

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Both legs:

Heroic$63.6343.2¢+$21.78

FaZe$70.1647.8¢-$8.48

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Heroic

Invested

$73.75

Value

$96.97

PnL

+$23.22

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

VeryLucky888

Heroic

Invested

$212.96

Value

$88.01

PnL

+$24.43

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Heroic

Invested

$38.22

Value

$49.86

PnL

+$11.64

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

poshposh<$100

Heroic

Invested

$12

Value

$15.47

PnL

+$3.47

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Heroic

Invested

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$1.44

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

Research grade

NeutralHeroic at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heroic

10 of 12 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Heroic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperHeroic 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrHeroic 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeroic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heroic 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heroic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.