Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FaZe (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Heroic (44%) · Heroic at 53¢ · $66K held · ends Nov 15

Heroic53¢FaZe47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Heroic

Consensus Traders

Heroic 44%

Total Value

$65.9K

Combined PnL

$68.59

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralHeroic at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heroic

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heroic53%

FaZe48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heroic7 traders

Total Value$42.2K

Total Shares80,362

Combined PnL+$153.64

FaZe9 traders

Total Value$23.7K

Total Shares49,918

Combined PnL-$85.05

Heroic — 44%FaZe — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Heroic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFaZe 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedFaZe 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000FaZe 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tankfest2027	Heroicavg 52¢	$22.3K	$22.5K	+$214.34	— 6-12 (18)
CORGIICTR	FaZeavg 48¢	$11.0K	$10.9K	-$115	2% 9-496 (505)
LL lllllllIlll	Heroicavg 52.9¢	$10.7K	$10.6K	-$72.27	5% 12-210 (222)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	FaZeavg 47¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$53.51	55% 177-144 (321)
VP VPenguinCTR	FaZeavg 47¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$0	35% 18-34 (52)
itwasawholething	Heroicavg 51.9¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$65.27	35% 8-15 (23)
OM omnibus-076daa	Heroicavg 53¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$30.39	46% 631-739 (1370)
RA Rayaya	Heroicavg 53¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$25	56% 19-15 (34)
latvian.demonCTR	FaZeavg 48¢	$1.0K	$997.5	-$10.5	13% 71-467 (538)
KA KaczkaCTR	FaZeavg 48¢	$650	$643.23	-$6.77	9% 21-208 (229)
BI biying99999CTR	FaZeavg 47.5¢	$491.15	$485.98	-$5.17	40% 152-227 (379)
fyrskenCTR	FaZeavg 47.6¢	$400	$398.88	-$1.12	49% 67-71 (138)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	FaZeavg 47¢	$376	$376	+$0	30% 486-1131 (1617)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	FaZeavg 50¢	$250	$94	+$0	64% 145-81 (226)
WI Wiretransferxyz<$100	Heroicavg 51¢	$36.21	$36.92	+$0.71	56% 395-312 (707)
JU JuiceFarm<$100	Heroicavg 49¢	$16.17	$17.16	+$0.99	54% 59-50 (109)

tankfest2027

Heroic

Invested

$22,291.02

Value

$22.5K

PnL

+$214.34

Record

—

6-12 (18)

CORGIICTR

FaZe

Invested

$11,040

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$115

Record

9-496 (505)

lllllllIlll

Heroic

Invested

$10,690.14

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$72.27

Record

12-210 (222)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

FaZe

Invested

$5,029.79

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$53.51

Record

55%

177-144 (321)

VPenguinCTR

FaZe

Invested

$4,647.56

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18-34 (52)

itwasawholething

Heroic

Invested

$3,161.01

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$65.27

Record

35%

8-15 (23)

omnibus-076daa

Heroic

Invested

$3,221.52

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$30.39

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

Rayaya

Heroic

Invested

$2,650

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$25

Record

56%

19-15 (34)

latvian.demonCTR

FaZe

Invested

$1,008

Value

$997.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

13%

71-467 (538)

KaczkaCTR

FaZe

Invested

$650

Value

$643.23

PnL

-$6.77

Record

21-208 (229)

biying99999CTR

FaZe

Invested

$491.15

Value

$485.98

PnL

-$5.17

Record

40%

152-227 (379)

fyrskenCTR

FaZe

Invested

$400

Value

$398.88

PnL

-$1.12

Record

49%

67-71 (138)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

FaZe

Invested

$376

Value

$376

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

486-1131 (1617)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

FaZe

Invested

$250

Value

$94

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Wiretransferxyz<$100

Heroic

Invested

$36.21

Value

$36.92

PnL

+$0.71

Record

56%

395-312 (707)

JuiceFarm<$100

Heroic

Invested

$16.17

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$0.99

Record

54%

59-50 (109)

Research grade

NeutralHeroic at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heroic

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Heroic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFaZe 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedFaZe 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000FaZe 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heroic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.