Counter-Strike: HAVU vs BOJONG (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Group Stage

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold HAVU (91%) · HAVU at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

HAVU>99¢BOJONG<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HAVU

Consensus Traders

HAVU 91%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$289.85

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 100¢

+21% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralHAVU at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HAVU

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

HAVU100%

BOJONG0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HAVU10 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,628

Combined PnL+$284.13

BOJONG1 trader

Total Value$22

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$5.72

HAVU — 91%BOJONG — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on HAVU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000HAVU 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	HAVUavg 87.9¢	$818.69	$930.84	+$112.15	—
SH shiifoo	HAVUavg 79.9¢	$300.13	$375.54	+$75.41	—
CI cigarettes<$100	HAVUavg 52¢	$50	$99.95	+$47.95	—
PA Pan9X<$100	HAVUavg 88¢	$99.64	$74.21	+$8.87	—
38 38791873984189<$100	HAVUavg 87.4¢	$30.6	$34.98	+$4.38	—
FL Flaznorp<$100	HAVUavg 81.8¢	$28.54	$34.86	+$6.32	—
LR lryyyCTR<$100	BOJONGavg 40¢	$16.28	$22	+$5.72	—
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	HAVUavg 48¢	$10.51	$21.88	+$11.37	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	HAVUavg 54¢	$10.8	$19.99	+$9.19	—
SU suitcase6628<$100	HAVUavg 80¢	$16	$19.99	+$3.99	—
US User7429<$100	HAVUavg 70¢	$10.5	$14.99	+$4.49	—

Gaditima

HAVU

Invested

$818.69

Value

$930.84

PnL

+$112.15

Record

—

shiifoo

HAVU

Invested

$300.13

Value

$375.54

PnL

+$75.41

Record

—

cigarettes<$100

HAVU

Invested

$50

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$47.95

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

HAVU

Invested

$99.64

Value

$74.21

PnL

+$8.87

Record

—

38791873984189<$100

HAVU

Invested

$30.6

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$4.38

Record

—

Flaznorp<$100

HAVU

Invested

$28.54

Value

$34.86

PnL

+$6.32

Record

—

lryyyCTR<$100

BOJONG

Invested

$16.28

Value

$22

PnL

+$5.72

Record

—

omnibus-076daa<$100

HAVU

Invested

$10.51

Value

$21.88

PnL

+$11.37

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

HAVU

Invested

$10.8

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$9.19

Record

—

suitcase6628<$100

HAVU

Invested

$16

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$3.99

Record

—

User7429<$100

HAVU

Invested

$10.5

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$4.49

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralHAVU at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

HAVU

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on HAVU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000HAVU 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HAVU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.