Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Galorys, while the market favors RED Canids Academy (84%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Galorys vs RED Canids Academy - Map 2 Winner

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Galorys (36%) · Galorys at 16¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Galorys16¢RED Canids Academy84¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Galorys

Consensus Traders

Galorys 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 16¢

-71% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidGalorys at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Galorys

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors RED Canids Academy 84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Galorys16%

RED Canids Academy84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Galorys4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares9,212

Combined PnL$-2.4K

RED Canids Academy7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,013

Combined PnL+$479.02

Galorys — 36%RED Canids Academy — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabichCTR	Galorysavg 54.7¢	$4.3K	$1.9K	$-2.4K	11% 5-42 (47)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	Galorysavg 54.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$22.29	60% 133-87 (220)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	RED Canids Academyavg 45¢	$225	$397.5	+$172.5	36% 432-771 (1203)
31 319113331313111	RED Canids Academyavg 41.8¢	$962.44	$297	+$71.81	57% 150-113 (263)
NO NotJump	RED Canids Academyavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	53% 631-566 (1197)
PA panpidaras1ARB<$100	Galorysavg 62.5¢	$256.92	$231.28	-$25.64	11% 35-281 (316)
└ Galorys leg	Galorysavg 62.5¢	$180.74	$135.95	-$44.79
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 42.4¢	$76.18	$95.33	+$19.15
06 0x0636...d49a	RED Canids Academyavg 42¢	$116.36	$210.55	+$94.19	—
TO topdogbigboi	RED Canids Academyavg 43¢	$96.71	$182.24	+$85.54	37% 657-1141 (1798)
poshposhARB<$100	Galorysavg 69.2¢	$154.14	$132.03	-$22.11	46% 781-902 (1683)
└ Galorys leg	Galorysavg 69.2¢	$100.94	$73.71	-$27.23
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 45.2¢	$53.2	$58.32	+$5.12
Future-Tarot-Trader	RED Canids Academyavg 49¢	$102.68	$96.82	+$58.61	52% 120-113 (233)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Galorysavg 75¢	$109.27	$71.38	-$37.89	56% 156-125 (281)
LR lryyy<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 42¢	$35.2	$31.57	-$3.63	45% 593-733 (1326)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Galorysavg 67.9¢	$12.57	$12.69	+$0.11	51% 2261-2214 (4475)

JabJabichCTR

Galorys

Invested

$4,251.47

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

11%

5-42 (47)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

Galorys

Invested

$1,291.27

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$22.29

Record

60%

133-87 (220)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$225

Value

$397.5

PnL

+$172.5

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

319113331313111

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$962.44

Value

$297

PnL

+$71.81

Record

57%

150-113 (263)

NotJump

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

panpidaras1ARB<$100

Galorys

Invested

$256.92

Value

$231.28

PnL

-$25.64

Record

11%

35-281 (316)

Both legs:

Galorys$180.7462.5¢-$44.79

RED Canids Academy$76.1842.4¢+$19.15

0x0636...d49a

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$116.36

Value

$210.55

PnL

+$94.19

Record

—

topdogbigboi

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$96.71

Value

$182.24

PnL

+$85.54

Record

37%

657-1141 (1798)

poshposhARB<$100

Galorys

Invested

$154.14

Value

$132.03

PnL

-$22.11

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

Both legs:

Galorys$100.9469.2¢-$27.23

RED Canids Academy$53.245.2¢+$5.12

Future-Tarot-Trader

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$102.68

Value

$96.82

PnL

+$58.61

Record

52%

120-113 (233)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Galorys

Invested

$109.27

Value

$71.38

PnL

-$37.89

Record

56%

156-125 (281)

lryyy<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$35.2

Value

$31.57

PnL

-$3.63

Record

45%

593-733 (1326)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Galorys

Invested

$12.57

Value

$12.69

PnL

+$0.11

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

Research grade

AvoidGalorys at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Galorys

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors RED Canids Academy 84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Galorys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.