Counter-Strike: Galorys vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Playoffs

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Galorys (38%) · Galorys at 79¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 13

Galorys79¢RED Canids Academy21¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Galorys

Consensus Traders

Galorys 38%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

83.8¢ → 78.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralGalorys at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Galorys

6 of 16 top traders (38%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Galorys79%

RED Canids Academy22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Galorys6 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares14,993

Combined PnL$-2.8K

RED Canids Academy10 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares11,554

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Galorys — 38%RED Canids Academy — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Galorys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRED Canids Academy 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedRED Canids Academy 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000RED Canids Academy 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Galorysavg 83.8¢	$11.1K	$8.6K	$-2.5K	56% 156-125 (281)
LO lonmi2511CTR	RED Canids Academyavg 16¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$785.98	60% 689-467 (1156)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Galorysavg 72.9¢	$526.59	$542.81	+$16.22	60% 133-87 (220)
└ Galorys leg	Galorysavg 72.9¢	$392.89	$433.86	+$40.97
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 23.9¢	$133.7	$108.95	-$24.75
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Galorysavg 85¢	$680	$520	-$160	22% 266-965 (1231)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 22.6¢	$357.58	$499.38	+$141.8	57% 150-113 (263)
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 22.6¢	$245.27	$379.53	+$134.26
└ Galorys leg	Galorysavg 60.9¢	$112.31	$119.85	+$7.54
XT xtxpleasecallme	Galorysavg 83.1¢	$504.68	$394.63	-$110.05	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Galorysavg 63.6¢	$409.5	$376.25	-$33.25	53% 631-566 (1197)
└ Galorys leg	Galorysavg 63.6¢	$278.25	$284.38	+$6.13
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 50¢	$131.25	$91.87	-$39.38
alpheclabs2CTR	RED Canids Academyavg 17.3¢	$138.6	$279.83	+$141.23	46% 219-260 (479)
VeryLucky888CTR	RED Canids Academyavg 15¢	$112.5	$262.5	+$150	53% 1030-921 (1951)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	RED Canids Academyavg 16.6¢	$72.7	$153.57	+$80.87	44% 391-495 (886)
E4 e46m3	Galorysavg 86¢	$141.37	$106.85	-$34.52	42% 2607-3596 (6203)
lma0o0o0oCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 23.3¢	$74.29	$78.24	+$3.95	54% 34-29 (63)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Galorysavg 68.4¢	$71.28	$67.69	-$3.59	40% 584-893 (1477)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 18¢	$32.87	$63.95	+$31.08	37% 657-1141 (1798)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Galorysavg 70.3¢	$56.34	$63.21	+$6.87	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
└ Galorys leg	Galorysavg 70.3¢	$41.91	$38.75	-$3.16
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 20.6¢	$14.42	$24.46	+$10.04
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 15.7¢	$19.03	$42.35	+$23.32	68% 2627-1220 (3847)
poshposhCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 17.9¢	$18.39	$36.03	+$17.64	46% 781-902 (1683)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 18¢	$18	$35	+$17	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
PA Pan9X<$100	Galorysavg 81.7¢	$19.77	$17.8	-$1.97	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 27¢	$1.8	$2.33	+$0.53	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Galorys

Invested

$11,149.08

Value

$8.6K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

56%

156-125 (281)

lonmi2511CTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$1,397.3

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$785.98

Record

60%

689-467 (1156)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Galorys

Invested

$526.59

Value

$542.81

PnL

+$16.22

Record

60%

133-87 (220)

Both legs:

Galorys$392.8972.9¢+$40.97

RED Canids Academy$133.723.9¢-$24.75

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Galorys

Invested

$680

Value

$520

PnL

-$160

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

319113331313111ARB<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$357.58

Value

$499.38

PnL

+$141.8

Record

57%

150-113 (263)

Both legs:

RED Canids Academy$245.2722.6¢+$134.26

Galorys$112.3160.9¢+$7.54

xtxpleasecallme

Galorys

Invested

$504.68

Value

$394.63

PnL

-$110.05

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

NotJumpARB<$100

Galorys

Invested

$409.5

Value

$376.25

PnL

-$33.25

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

Both legs:

Galorys$278.2563.6¢+$6.13

RED Canids Academy$131.2550¢-$39.38

alpheclabs2CTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$138.6

Value

$279.83

PnL

+$141.23

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

VeryLucky888CTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$112.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$150

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

omnibus-076daaCTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$72.7

Value

$153.57

PnL

+$80.87

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

e46m3

Galorys

Invested

$141.37

Value

$106.85

PnL

-$34.52

Record

42%

2607-3596 (6203)

lma0o0o0oCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$74.29

Value

$78.24

PnL

+$3.95

Record

54%

34-29 (63)

ameisgoat11<$100

Galorys

Invested

$71.28

Value

$67.69

PnL

-$3.59

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$32.87

Value

$63.95

PnL

+$31.08

Record

37%

657-1141 (1798)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Galorys

Invested

$56.34

Value

$63.21

PnL

+$6.87

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

Both legs:

Galorys$41.9170.3¢-$3.16

RED Canids Academy$14.4220.6¢+$10.04

purplegattoCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$19.03

Value

$42.35

PnL

+$23.32

Record

68%

2627-1220 (3847)

poshposhCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$18.39

Value

$36.03

PnL

+$17.64

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

cigarettesCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$18

Value

$35

PnL

+$17

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

Pan9X<$100

Galorys

Invested

$19.77

Value

$17.8

PnL

-$1.97

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

suntoriCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.53

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

NeutralGalorys at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Galorys

6 of 16 top traders (38%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Galorys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRED Canids Academy 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedRED Canids Academy 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000RED Canids Academy 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Galorys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.