Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Low Cortisol (BO3) - CCT South America Playoffs

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Galorys (55%) · Galorys at 82¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Galorys82¢Low Cortisol18¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Galorys

Consensus Traders

Galorys 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$42.25

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 81.5¢

+26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralGalorys at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Galorys

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Galorys82%

Low Cortisol19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Galorys6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,440

Combined PnL-$19.59

Low Cortisol5 traders

Total Value$967.61

Total Shares2,455

Combined PnL-$22.66

Galorys — 55%Low Cortisol — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarm	Galorysavg 65¢	$909.99	$797.99	-$112	58% 52-37 (89)
lma0o0o0oCTR	Low Cortisolavg 43.4¢	$491.11	$486.11	-$5	55% 45-37 (82)
KA Kaczka	Galorysavg 70.7¢	$367	$415.56	+$48.56	6% 13-195 (208)
GA Gaditima	Galorysavg 56.8¢	$280.66	$348.82	+$68.15	48% 289-310 (599)
38 38791873984189CTR	Low Cortisolavg 43.5¢	$282.5	$279.5	-$3	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Low Cortisolavg 30.1¢	$235.59	$197.44	-$38.16	56% 187-144 (331)
└ Low Cortisol leg	Low Cortisolavg 30.1¢	$174.47	$118.7	-$55.77
└ Galorys leg	Galorysavg 61.7¢	$61.12	$78.73	+$17.62
CI cigarettesCTR	Low Cortisolavg 32.7¢	$151.49	$141.36	-$10.13	53% 7196-6292 (13488)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	Low Cortisolavg 30¢	$64.5	$68.48	+$3.97	44% 400-500 (900)
└ Low Cortisol leg	Low Cortisolavg 30¢	$49.5	$47.03	-$2.48
└ Galorys leg	Galorysavg 50¢	$15	$21.45	+$6.45
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Low Cortisolavg 35¢	$26.91	$33.06	+$6.15	46% 516-615 (1131)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Galorysavg 78¢	$246.07	$29.38	-$26.51	61% 172-111 (283)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Low Cortisolavg 28.4¢	$38.25	$27.58	-$10.68	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
PA Pan9X<$100	Galorysavg 52.4¢	$23.58	$25.65	+$2.07	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Galorysavg 51¢	$1.18	$1.32	+$0.14	49% 4087-4288 (8375)

JuiceFarm

Galorys

Invested

$909.99

Value

$797.99

PnL

-$112

Record

58%

52-37 (89)

lma0o0o0oCTR

Low Cortisol

Invested

$491.11

Value

$486.11

PnL

-$5

Record

55%

45-37 (82)

Kaczka

Galorys

Invested

$367

Value

$415.56

PnL

+$48.56

Record

13-195 (208)

Gaditima

Galorys

Invested

$280.66

Value

$348.82

PnL

+$68.15

Record

48%

289-310 (599)

38791873984189CTR

Low Cortisol

Invested

$282.5

Value

$279.5

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

319113331313111ARB<$100

Low Cortisol

Invested

$235.59

Value

$197.44

PnL

-$38.16

Record

56%

187-144 (331)

Both legs:

Low Cortisol$174.4730.1¢-$55.77

Galorys$61.1261.7¢+$17.62

cigarettesCTR

Low Cortisol

Invested

$151.49

Value

$141.36

PnL

-$10.13

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

Low Cortisol

Invested

$64.5

Value

$68.48

PnL

+$3.97

Record

44%

400-500 (900)

Both legs:

Low Cortisol$49.530¢-$2.48

Galorys$1550¢+$6.45

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Low Cortisol

Invested

$26.91

Value

$33.06

PnL

+$6.15

Record

46%

516-615 (1131)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Galorys

Invested

$246.07

Value

$29.38

PnL

-$26.51

Record

61%

172-111 (283)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Low Cortisol

Invested

$38.25

Value

$27.58

PnL

-$10.68

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

Pan9X<$100

Galorys

Invested

$23.58

Value

$25.65

PnL

+$2.07

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

Flaznorp<$100

Galorys

Invested

$1.18

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

Research grade

NeutralGalorys at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Galorys

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Galorys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.