Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lunacy Team - Map 1 Winner
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold G2 Ares (80%) · G2 Ares at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
G2 Ares
5
G2 Ares 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$200.58
43.3¢ → 77¢
+78% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralG2 Ares at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 319113331313111 | G2 Aresavg 43.5¢ | $730.42 | $926.19 | +$195.77 | 51% 61-59 (120) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100 | G2 Aresavg 50.7¢ | $776.86 | $834.32 | +$57.46 | 65% 52-28 (80) |
| └ G2 Ares leg | G2 Aresavg 50.7¢ | $460.72 | $621.87 | +$161.15 | |
| └ Lunacy Team leg | Lunacy Teamavg 46.9¢ | $316.14 | $212.45 | -$103.69 | |
PA pauleta23<$100 | G2 Aresavg 56.3¢ | $9.62 | $12.9 | +$3.28 | 28% 179-466 (645) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | G2 Aresavg 31¢ | $5.25 | $8.47 | +$3.22 | 62% 1321-794 (2115) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | G2 Aresavg 32¢ | $5 | $7.81 | +$2.81 | 41% 3116-4481 (7597) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Lunacy Teamavg 50¢ | $10.45 | $5.96 | -$4.49 | 60% 641-427 (1068) |
Invested
$730.42
Value
$926.19
PnL
+$195.77
Record
51%
61-59 (120)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100Invested
$776.86
Value
$834.32
PnL
+$57.46
Record
65%
52-28 (80)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.62
Value
$12.9
PnL
+$3.28
Record
28%
179-466 (645)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$8.47
PnL
+$3.22
Record
62%
1321-794 (2115)
Invested
$5
Value
$7.81
PnL
+$2.81
Record
41%
3116-4481 (7597)
Invested
$10.45
Value
$5.96
PnL
-$4.49
Record
60%
641-427 (1068)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.