Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Balkan Outlaws - Map 1 Winner

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Balkan Outlaws (30%) · Balkan Outlaws at 69¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

GenOne32¢Balkan Outlaws68¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Balkan Outlaws

Consensus Traders

Balkan Outlaws 30%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$245.02

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 68.5¢

+36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBalkan Outlaws at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Balkan Outlaws

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

GenOne32%

Balkan Outlaws69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Balkan Outlaws3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,630

Combined PnL+$406.65

GenOne7 traders

Total Value$805.97

Total Shares2,027

Combined PnL-$161.63

Balkan Outlaws — 30%GenOne — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	Balkan Outlawsavg 50.2¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$406.49	29% 26-63 (89)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Balkan Outlawsavg 77.3¢	$1.3K	$790.56	-$368.28	29% 235-575 (810)
└ Balkan Outlaws leg	Balkan Outlawsavg 77.3¢	$645.02	$579.94	-$65.08
└ GenOne leg	GenOneavg 47.7¢	$329.49	$210.62	-$303.2
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	GenOneavg 55.2¢	$516.02	$509.64	-$6.38	55% 162-133 (295)
NO NotJump	Balkan Outlawsavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	52% 802-736 (1538)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	GenOneavg 18.5¢	$868.45	$127.9	+$0.25	57% 172-131 (303)
└ Balkan Outlaws leg	Balkan Outlawsavg 71.5¢	$57.15	$67.12	-$130.98
└ GenOne leg	GenOneavg 18.5¢	$70.42	$60.78	+$131.23
JO johnsonboyyCTR	GenOneavg 50¢	$100.58	$109.74	+$9.16	48% 12-13 (25)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	GenOneavg 39.7¢	$127.5	$62.58	-$64.92	37% 996-1673 (2669)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	GenOneavg 33.4¢	$80.17	$38.45	-$41.72	50% 2500-2457 (4957)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	GenOneavg 19.9¢	$523.01	$31.61	-$11.17	61% 154-100 (254)
PA panpidaras1CTR<$100	GenOneavg 40.4¢	$41.47	$28.22	-$13.25	13% 42-288 (330)
poshposhCTR<$100	GenOneavg 40.9¢	$59.09	$25.73	-$33.36	48% 1079-1157 (2236)
SH shiifoo<$100	Balkan Outlawsavg 71¢	$7.8	$7.96	+$0.16	61% 1421-900 (2321)

JabJabich

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$1,183.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$406.49

Record

29%

26-63 (89)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$1,327.34

Value

$790.56

PnL

-$368.28

Record

29%

235-575 (810)

Both legs:

Balkan Outlaws$645.0277.3¢-$65.08

GenOne$329.4947.7¢-$303.2

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

GenOne

Invested

$516.02

Value

$509.64

PnL

-$6.38

Record

55%

162-133 (295)

NotJump

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

802-736 (1538)

319113331313111ARB<$100

GenOne

Invested

$868.45

Value

$127.9

PnL

+$0.25

Record

57%

172-131 (303)

Both legs:

Balkan Outlaws$57.1571.5¢-$130.98

GenOne$70.4218.5¢+$131.23

johnsonboyyCTR

GenOne

Invested

$100.58

Value

$109.74

PnL

+$9.16

Record

48%

12-13 (25)

topdogbigboiCTR

GenOne

Invested

$127.5

Value

$62.58

PnL

-$64.92

Record

37%

996-1673 (2669)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$80.17

Value

$38.45

PnL

-$41.72

Record

50%

2500-2457 (4957)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

GenOne

Invested

$523.01

Value

$31.61

PnL

-$11.17

Record

61%

154-100 (254)

panpidaras1CTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$41.47

Value

$28.22

PnL

-$13.25

Record

13%

42-288 (330)

poshposhCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$59.09

Value

$25.73

PnL

-$33.36

Record

48%

1079-1157 (2236)

shiifoo<$100

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.96

PnL

+$0.16

Record

61%

1421-900 (2321)

Research grade

NeutralBalkan Outlaws at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Balkan Outlaws

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Balkan Outlaws wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.