Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner

15 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (54%) · Vitality at 72¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 12

FURIA28¢Vitality72¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 54%

Total Value

$47.7K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 71.5¢

+21% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

15 of 28 top traders (54%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FURIA28%

Vitality72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA13 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares52,202

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Vitality15 traders

Total Value$31.0K

Total Shares50,199

Combined PnL+$1.4K

FURIA — 46%Vitality — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fantasy7788CTR	FURIAavg 41.9¢	$15.0K	$10.6K	$-4.4K	42% 105-145 (250)
forsenxd	Vitalityavg 56.5¢	$6.1K	$6.4K	+$217.42	48% 357-381 (738)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Vitalityavg 60¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$158.28	2% 6-291 (297)
SU SuperMegaMan	Vitalityavg 61¢	$4.8K	$5.5K	+$746.57	49% 607-628 (1235)
BR Brz4629	Vitalityavg 61.9¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$369.67	— 13-3 (16)
VeryLucky888	Vitalityavg 59.3¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$30	52% 597-541 (1138)
Vladooos	Vitalityavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$15	61% 20-13 (33)
BL black-rabbit	Vitalityavg 56¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$75	6% 4-67 (71)
RE reykreykCTR	FURIAavg 39.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.45	— 2-12 (14)
WH white-rabbit	Vitalityavg 56¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$63.6	5% 4-70 (74)
SP SportsTrading123CTR	FURIAavg 38¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$16.7	— 4-2 (6)
RR rrooster	Vitalityavg 59¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$26.12	40% 23-35 (58)
PL plustiCTR	FURIAavg 42¢	$880.25	$880.25	+$0	27% 16-43 (59)
BI BillBenter2026	Vitalityavg 60.4¢	$831.79	$846.88	+$15.09	24% 157-504 (661)
lma0o0o0oCTR	FURIAavg 41¢	$614.99	$622.49	+$7.5	53% 20-18 (38)
PU purplegattoCTR	FURIAavg 40.3¢	$489.87	$359	-$130.87	69% 2589-1187 (3776)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	FURIAavg 37.5¢	$420.5	$330.36	-$90.14	62% 81-50 (131)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR	FURIAavg 30.4¢	$313.23	$303.69	-$9.54	15% 22-129 (151)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	FURIAavg 39.6¢	$369.12	$274.94	-$94.18	61% 36-23 (59)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	FURIAavg 38.3¢	$263.09	$271.39	+$8.3	56% 3878-3042 (6920)
SU suntori	Vitalityavg 59.3¢	$222.3	$259.68	+$37.81	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
Future-Tarot-Trader	Vitalityavg 61¢	$235.55	$237.48	+$1.93	46% 72-85 (157)
GH ghorrockCTR	FURIAavg 39.4¢	$186.1	$151.08	+$0.73	55% 729-596 (1325)
38 38791873984189	Vitalityavg 57.8¢	$202.07	$126.13	+$9.77	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	FURIAavg 39¢	$78	$81	+$3	36% 410-719 (1129)

fantasy7788CTR

FURIA

Invested

$15,000

Value

$10.6K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

42%

105-145 (250)

forsenxd

Vitality

Invested

$6,142.34

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$217.42

Record

48%

357-381 (738)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Vitality

Invested

$6,331.12

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$158.28

Record

6-291 (297)

SuperMegaMan

Vitality

Invested

$4,793.79

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$746.57

Record

49%

607-628 (1235)

Brz4629

Vitality

Invested

$2,654.92

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$369.67

Record

—

13-3 (16)

VeryLucky888

Vitality

Invested

$2,370

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$30

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

Vladooos

Vitality

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$15

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

black-rabbit

Vitality

Invested

$1,680

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$75

Record

4-67 (71)

reykreykCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,530

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.45

Record

—

2-12 (14)

white-rabbit

Vitality

Invested

$1,424.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$63.6

Record

4-70 (74)

SportsTrading123CTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,269.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$16.7

Record

—

4-2 (6)

rrooster

Vitality

Invested

$1,027.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$26.12

Record

40%

23-35 (58)

plustiCTR

FURIA

Invested

$880.25

Value

$880.25

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

16-43 (59)

BillBenter2026

Vitality

Invested

$831.79

Value

$846.88

PnL

+$15.09

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

lma0o0o0oCTR

FURIA

Invested

$614.99

Value

$622.49

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

20-18 (38)

purplegattoCTR

FURIA

Invested

$489.87

Value

$359

PnL

-$130.87

Record

69%

2589-1187 (3776)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

FURIA

Invested

$420.5

Value

$330.36

PnL

-$90.14

Record

62%

81-50 (131)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR

FURIA

Invested

$313.23

Value

$303.69

PnL

-$9.54

Record

15%

22-129 (151)

Zzzz87CTR

FURIA

Invested

$369.12

Value

$274.94

PnL

-$94.18

Record

61%

36-23 (59)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

FURIA

Invested

$263.09

Value

$271.39

PnL

+$8.3

Record

56%

3878-3042 (6920)

suntori

Vitality

Invested

$222.3

Value

$259.68

PnL

+$37.81

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Future-Tarot-Trader

Vitality

Invested

$235.55

Value

$237.48

PnL

+$1.93

Record

46%

72-85 (157)

ghorrockCTR

FURIA

Invested

$186.1

Value

$151.08

PnL

+$0.73

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

38791873984189

Vitality

Invested

$202.07

Value

$126.13

PnL

+$9.77

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$78

Value

$81

PnL

+$3

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

15 of 28 top traders (54%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.