Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (63%) · FURIA at 91¢ · $34K held · ends Oct 27
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Research candidate
FURIA
8
FURIA 63%
$34.4K
-$84.32
91¢ → 90.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateFURIA at 91%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA maxiforza | FURIAavg 91¢ | $15.0K | $15.0K | -$0 | 62% 176-108 (284) |
 Chopperyyy | FURIAavg 91¢ | $11.0K | $10.9K | -$60.44 | 64% 375-212 (587) |
AA aaaa298 | FURIAavg 91¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$11.78 | 58% 724-521 (1245) |
SU suleng66 | FURIAavg 91.2¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | -$14.61 | 63% 189-111 (300) |
 FeedTheBigBirdCTR | TYLOOavg 9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$0 | 49% 39-41 (80) |
 noosh3 | FURIAavg 91¢ | $1,000 | $994.51 | -$5.49 | 52% 238-219 (457) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR | TYLOOavg 9¢ | $888.46 | $937.81 | +$49.36 | 49% 7231-7379 (14610) |
OU outloudmCTR | TYLOOavg 10¢ | $827.22 | $785.86 | -$41.35 | 57% 63-48 (111) |
Invested
$15,000
Value
$15.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
62%
176-108 (284)
ChopperyyyInvested
$11,000
Value
$10.9K
PnL
-$60.44
Record
64%
375-212 (587)
Invested
$2,144.37
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$11.78
Record
58%
724-521 (1245)
Invested
$2,193.8
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$14.61
Record
63%
189-111 (300)
FeedTheBigBirdCTRInvested
$1,619.99
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
39-41 (80)
noosh3Invested
$1,000
Value
$994.51
PnL
-$5.49
Record
52%
238-219 (457)
Invested
$888.46
Value
$937.81
PnL
+$49.36
Record
49%
7231-7379 (14610)
Invested
$827.22
Value
$785.86
PnL
-$41.35
Record
57%
63-48 (111)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.