Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs Nexus - Map 2 Winner

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FORZE Reload (43%) · FORZE Reload at 63¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

FORZE Reload63¢Nexus37¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FORZE Reload

Consensus Traders

FORZE Reload 43%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$211.47

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 62.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FORZE Reload63%

Nexus38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FORZE Reload3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,419

Combined PnL+$238.1

Nexus4 traders

Total Value$377.38

Total Shares635

Combined PnL-$26.63

FORZE Reload — 43%Nexus — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on FORZE Reload. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFORZE Reload 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFORZE Reload 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000FORZE Reload 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	FORZE Reloadavg 61.3¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$227.79	35% 48-89 (137)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 60.5¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$29.76	56% 4169-3265 (7434)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 60.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$116.82
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 39.2¢	$722.78	$635.72	-$87.06
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Nexusavg 38.4¢	$721.98	$496.38	-$225.6	33% 305-622 (927)
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 38.4¢	$566.11	$250.62	-$315.49
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 52.6¢	$155.87	$245.75	+$89.89
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 68.7¢	$348.37	$366.59	+$18.22	62% 207-127 (334)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 68.7¢	$293.87	$280.35	-$13.53
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 21.8¢	$54.5	$86.25	+$31.75
NO NotJumpCTR	Nexusavg 49.1¢	$277.14	$263.18	-$13.96	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
Future-Tarot-TraderCTR	Nexusavg 30.2¢	$245.29	$75.08	-$10.59	55% 167-135 (302)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 66.6¢	$53.03	$62.24	+$9.21	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 25.2¢	$24.61	$34.72	+$10.11
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 66.6¢	$28.42	$27.53	-$0.89
31 319113331313111CTR<$100	Nexusavg 19¢	$29.44	$31.57	+$2.14	55% 209-171 (380)
SE sentrio<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 61¢	$16.31	$22.19	+$5.88	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
CR crabfavor<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 64¢	$14.89	$19.31	+$4.42	58% 120-88 (208)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Nexusavg 42¢	$29.76	$7.55	-$4.21	48% 3968-4327 (8295)

JabJabich

FORZE Reload

Invested

$3,288.86

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$227.79

Record

35%

48-89 (137)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$2,133.92

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$29.76

Record

56%

4169-3265 (7434)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$1,411.1460.5¢+$116.82

Nexus$722.7839.2¢-$87.06

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Nexus

Invested

$721.98

Value

$496.38

PnL

-$225.6

Record

33%

305-622 (927)

Both legs:

Nexus$566.1138.4¢-$315.49

FORZE Reload$155.8752.6¢+$89.89

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$348.37

Value

$366.59

PnL

+$18.22

Record

62%

207-127 (334)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$293.8768.7¢-$13.53

Nexus$54.521.8¢+$31.75

NotJumpCTR

Nexus

Invested

$277.14

Value

$263.18

PnL

-$13.96

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Future-Tarot-TraderCTR

Nexus

Invested

$245.29

Value

$75.08

PnL

-$10.59

Record

55%

167-135 (302)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$53.03

Value

$62.24

PnL

+$9.21

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

Both legs:

Nexus$24.6125.2¢+$10.11

FORZE Reload$28.4266.6¢-$0.89

319113331313111CTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$29.44

Value

$31.57

PnL

+$2.14

Record

55%

209-171 (380)

sentrio<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$16.31

Value

$22.19

PnL

+$5.88

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

crabfavor<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$14.89

Value

$19.31

PnL

+$4.42

Record

58%

120-88 (208)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$29.76

Value

$7.55

PnL

-$4.21

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on FORZE Reload. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFORZE Reload 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFORZE Reload 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000FORZE Reload 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FORZE Reload wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.