Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs Nexus (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Nexus (60%) · Nexus at 51¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

FORZE Reload50¢Nexus50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nexus

Consensus Traders

Nexus 60%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$46.54

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNexus at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nexus

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FORZE Reload50%

Nexus51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nexus6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,982

Combined PnL+$22.2

FORZE Reload4 traders

Total Value$947.29

Total Shares1,916

Combined PnL+$24.34

Nexus — 60%FORZE Reload — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nexus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FORZE Reload) and the top 1000 (9 on Nexus) disagree here.

ctrFORZE Reload 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedFORZE Reload 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nexus 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Nexusavg 50.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$76.17	55% 174-144 (318)
LL lllllllIlll	Nexusavg 52¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$44.38	5% 10-209 (219)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	FORZE Reloadavg 48.3¢	$730.32	$747.87	+$17.55	54% 59-50 (109)
fyrsken	Nexusavg 52.2¢	$422.68	$408.64	-$14.05	48% 66-71 (137)
JO johnsonboyyCTR	FORZE Reloadavg 47¢	$170.36	$179.42	+$9.06	48% 15-16 (31)
GA Gaditima<$100	Nexusavg 46¢	$32.25	$36.46	+$4.21	49% 383-400 (783)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 50¢	$16.63	$15.63	-$1	40% 152-227 (379)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nexusavg 50.4¢	$14.81	$15.06	+$0.25	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
VeryLucky888CTR	FORZE Reloadavg 46¢	$134.39	$4.37	-$1.28	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Nexusavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.6	-$0	46% 621-730 (1351)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Nexus

Invested

$2,065.49

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$76.17

Record

55%

174-144 (318)

lllllllIlll

Nexus

Invested

$1,538.44

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$44.38

Record

10-209 (219)

JuiceFarmCTR

FORZE Reload

Invested

$730.32

Value

$747.87

PnL

+$17.55

Record

54%

59-50 (109)

fyrsken

Nexus

Invested

$422.68

Value

$408.64

PnL

-$14.05

Record

48%

66-71 (137)

johnsonboyyCTR

FORZE Reload

Invested

$170.36

Value

$179.42

PnL

+$9.06

Record

48%

15-16 (31)

Gaditima<$100

Nexus

Invested

$32.25

Value

$36.46

PnL

+$4.21

Record

49%

383-400 (783)

biying99999CTR<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$16.63

Value

$15.63

PnL

-$1

Record

40%

152-227 (379)

Pan9X<$100

Nexus

Invested

$14.81

Value

$15.06

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

VeryLucky888CTR

FORZE Reload

Invested

$134.39

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$1.28

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Nexus

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

Research grade

NeutralNexus at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nexus

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nexus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FORZE Reload) and the top 1000 (9 on Nexus) disagree here.

ctrFORZE Reload 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedFORZE Reload 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nexus 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nexus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.