Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs Nice Try (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold FORZE Reload (40%) · FORZE Reload at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
FORZE Reload
10
FORZE Reload 40%
$1.1K
$19.99
64.2¢ → 83.5¢
+30% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralFORZE Reload at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JabJabich | FORZE Reloadavg 65.9¢ | $319.05 | $403.98 | +$84.93 | 29% 26-63 (89) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | Nice Tryavg 35.5¢ | $304.5 | $317.76 | +$13.27 | 55% 162-133 (295) |
 VeryLucky888 | FORZE Reloadavg 62¢ | $191.76 | $194.85 | +$3.09 | 53% 1318-1151 (2469) |
JO johnsonboyyCTR<$100 | Nice Tryavg 27.8¢ | $73.48 | $43.56 | -$29.92 | 48% 12-13 (25) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | FORZE Reloadavg 63.2¢ | $40.42 | $40.32 | -$0.1 | 50% 1579-1603 (3182) |
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR | Nice Tryavg 35.6¢ | $261.47 | $29.94 | -$48.97 | 20% 56-224 (280) |
BI biying99999<$100 | FORZE Reloadavg 62¢ | $21.7 | $21.7 | +$0 | 34% 101-192 (293) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Nice Tryavg 31.7¢ | $14.14 | $12.73 | -$1.41 | 37% 996-1673 (2669) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100 | Nice Tryavg 33.5¢ | $10.05 | $9.15 | -$0.9 | 43% 354-460 (814) |
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100 | Nice Tryavg 37¢ | $7.34 | $7.34 | +$0 | 62% 202-122 (324) |
Invested
$319.05
Value
$403.98
PnL
+$84.93
Record
29%
26-63 (89)
Invested
$304.5
Value
$317.76
PnL
+$13.27
Record
55%
162-133 (295)
VeryLucky888Invested
$191.76
Value
$194.85
PnL
+$3.09
Record
53%
1318-1151 (2469)
Invested
$73.48
Value
$43.56
PnL
-$29.92
Record
48%
12-13 (25)
Invested
$40.42
Value
$40.32
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
1579-1603 (3182)
Invested
$261.47
Value
$29.94
PnL
-$48.97
Record
20%
56-224 (280)
Invested
$21.7
Value
$21.7
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
101-192 (293)
Invested
$14.14
Value
$12.73
PnL
-$1.41
Record
37%
996-1673 (2669)
Invested
$10.05
Value
$9.15
PnL
-$0.9
Record
43%
354-460 (814)
Invested
$7.34
Value
$7.34
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
202-122 (324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
JabJabich
FORZE Reload — $403.98
0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F
CTRNice Try — $317.76
VeryLucky888
FORZE Reload — $194.85
johnsonboyy
CTRNice Try — $43.56
Pan9X
FORZE Reload — $40.32
TommyLeePeeca
CTRNice Try — $29.94
biying99999
FORZE Reload — $21.7
topdogbigboi
CTRNice Try — $12.73
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
CTRNice Try — $9.15
thatsabing0
CTRNice Try — $7.34