Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FORZE Reload (29%) · FORZE Reload at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

FORZE Reload91¢MASONIC9¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FORZE Reload

Consensus Traders

FORZE Reload 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$23.81

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 90.5¢

+30% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FORZE Reload91%

MASONIC10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FORZE Reload2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,119

Combined PnL+$88.34

MASONIC5 traders

Total Value$63.4

Total Shares566

Combined PnL-$112.15

FORZE Reload — 29%MASONIC — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on FORZE Reload. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMASONIC 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000MASONIC 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	FORZE Reloadavg 69.7¢	$521.38	$551.77	+$30.39	67% 61-30 (91)
31 319113331313111	FORZE Reloadavg 69.3¢	$440.38	$498.32	+$57.95	54% 71-61 (132)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	MASONICavg 37.8¢	$599.38	$321.22	-$219.82	22% 140-490 (630)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 78.4¢	$212.15	$242.1	+$29.95
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 37.8¢	$284.94	$79.12	-$249.76
PA panpidaras1CTR	MASONICavg 38¢	$100	$27.63	-$72.37	7% 20-266 (286)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	MASONICavg 25.1¢	$49.82	$18.82	-$31	53% 1811-1620 (3431)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	MASONICavg 24.7¢	$18.33	$11.31	-$7.02	60% 646-430 (1076)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	MASONICavg 24¢	$5	$3.12	-$1.87	41% 3126-4493 (7619)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	MASONICavg 10¢	$2.4	$2.52	+$0.12	30% 201-472 (673)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

FORZE Reload

Invested

$521.38

Value

$551.77

PnL

+$30.39

Record

67%

61-30 (91)

319113331313111

FORZE Reload

Invested

$440.38

Value

$498.32

PnL

+$57.95

Record

54%

71-61 (132)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$599.38

Value

$321.22

PnL

-$219.82

Record

22%

140-490 (630)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$212.1578.4¢+$29.95

MASONIC$284.9437.8¢-$249.76

panpidaras1CTR

MASONIC

Invested

$100

Value

$27.63

PnL

-$72.37

Record

20-266 (286)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$49.82

Value

$18.82

PnL

-$31

Record

53%

1811-1620 (3431)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$18.33

Value

$11.31

PnL

-$7.02

Record

60%

646-430 (1076)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

MASONIC

Invested

Value

$3.12

PnL

-$1.87

Record

41%

3126-4493 (7619)

pauleta23CTR<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.12

Record

30%

201-472 (673)

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on FORZE Reload. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMASONIC 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000MASONIC 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FORZE Reload wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.