Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold MASONIC (71%) · MASONIC at 87¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 11

FORZE Reload14¢MASONIC86¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MASONIC

Consensus Traders

MASONIC 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$85.31

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 86.5¢

+60% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMASONIC at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MASONIC

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FORZE Reload14%

MASONIC87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MASONIC5 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares8,122

Combined PnL+$204.14

FORZE Reload2 traders

Total Value$88.56

Total Shares367

Combined PnL-$118.83

MASONIC — 71%FORZE Reload — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111	MASONICavg 55.4¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$233.42	52% 64-60 (124)
BI BillBenter2026	MASONICavg 55.1¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	+$242.29	22% 136-488 (624)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	MASONICavg 44.2¢	$345.03	$449.75	+$104.72	67% 56-28 (84)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	MASONICavg 45.9¢	$373.43	$383.31	+$9.89	53% 1801-1611 (3412)
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 45.9¢	$258.52	$267.47	+$8.95
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 52.1¢	$114.91	$115.85	+$0.93
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	MASONICavg 45¢	$118.98	$202.27	+$83.29	28% 158-401 (559)
PA panpidaras1CTR	FORZE Reloadavg 55.3¢	$190.45	$77.44	-$113.01	7% 20-265 (285)
LO lonmi2511ARB<$100	MASONICavg 46.3¢	$47.6	$63.92	+$16.33	60% 643-428 (1071)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 29.3¢	$19.85	$33.92	+$14.08
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 46.3¢	$27.75	$30	+$2.25
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	MASONICavg 22.8¢	$6.1	$13.37	+$7.27	41% 3122-4487 (7609)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 59.8¢	$18.33	$11.13	-$5.82	29% 190-469 (659)

319113331313111

MASONIC

Invested

$4,926.13

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$233.42

Record

52%

64-60 (124)

BillBenter2026

MASONIC

Invested

$2,739.84

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$242.29

Record

22%

136-488 (624)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

MASONIC

Invested

$345.03

Value

$449.75

PnL

+$104.72

Record

67%

56-28 (84)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$373.43

Value

$383.31

PnL

+$9.89

Record

53%

1801-1611 (3412)

Both legs:

MASONIC$258.5245.9¢+$8.95

FORZE Reload$114.9152.1¢+$0.93

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

MASONIC

Invested

$118.98

Value

$202.27

PnL

+$83.29

Record

28%

158-401 (559)

panpidaras1CTR

FORZE Reload

Invested

$190.45

Value

$77.44

PnL

-$113.01

Record

20-265 (285)

lonmi2511ARB<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$47.6

Value

$63.92

PnL

+$16.33

Record

60%

643-428 (1071)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$19.8529.3¢+$14.08

MASONIC$27.7546.3¢+$2.25

xtxpleasecallme<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$6.1

Value

$13.37

PnL

+$7.27

Record

41%

3122-4487 (7609)

pauleta23CTR<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$18.33

Value

$11.13

PnL

-$5.82

Record

29%

190-469 (659)

Research grade

NeutralMASONIC at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MASONIC

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MASONIC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.