Map Handicap: FORZE.R (-1.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FORZE Reload (40%) · FORZE Reload at 76¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
FORZE Reload
5
FORZE Reload 40%
$8.2K
$2.2K
47¢ → 75.5¢
+61% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFORZE Reload at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on FORZE Reload. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18 | FORZE Reloadavg 47¢ | $4.8K | $6.9K | +$2.2K | 51% 708-691 (1399) |
 VeryLucky888 | FORZE Reloadavg 47.4¢ | $545.89 | $786.8 | +$240.9 | 48% 218-232 (450) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | MOUZ NXTavg 52.4¢ | $683.5 | $469.8 | -$213.7 | 53% 120-105 (225) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | MOUZ NXTavg 53¢ | $10.89 | $7.4 | -$3.49 | 35% 171-317 (488) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | MOUZ NXTavg 39.1¢ | $4.35 | $3.44 | -$0.91 | 23% 147-489 (636) |
Invested
$4,777.15
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
51%
708-691 (1399)
VeryLucky888Invested
$545.89
Value
$786.8
PnL
+$240.9
Record
48%
218-232 (450)
Invested
$683.5
Value
$469.8
PnL
-$213.7
Record
53%
120-105 (225)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$7.4
PnL
-$3.49
Record
35%
171-317 (488)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$3.44
PnL
-$0.91
Record
23%
147-489 (636)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.