Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs MOUZ NXT - Map 1 Winner

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FORZE Reload (67%) · FORZE Reload at 76¢ · $983 held · ends Nov 10

FORZE Reload76¢MOUZ NXT24¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FORZE Reload

Consensus Traders

FORZE Reload 67%

Total Value

$982.86

Combined PnL

$15.25

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 75.5¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FORZE Reload76%

MOUZ NXT25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FORZE Reload4 traders

Total Value$933.52

Total Shares1,279

Combined PnL+$23.1

MOUZ NXT2 traders

Total Value$49.35

Total Shares93

Combined PnL-$7.85

FORZE Reload — 67%MOUZ NXT — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111	FORZE Reloadavg 66.5¢	$380.57	$382.9	+$2.33	35% 27-51 (78)
BI BillBenter2026	FORZE Reloadavg 68.4¢	$332.91	$348.24	+$15.33	12% 59-452 (511)
38 38791873984189	FORZE Reloadavg 61.3¢	$146.59	$137.74	+$2.74	48% 733-802 (1535)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 66.1¢	$61.94	$64.63	+$2.69	54% 1605-1351 (2956)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	MOUZ NXTavg 37.5¢	$54.24	$30.14	-$7.07	20% 100-408 (508)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	MOUZ NXTavg 37.8¢	$19.98	$19.2	-$0.78	40% 3003-4412 (7415)

319113331313111

FORZE Reload

Invested

$380.57

Value

$382.9

PnL

+$2.33

Record

35%

27-51 (78)

BillBenter2026

FORZE Reload

Invested

$332.91

Value

$348.24

PnL

+$15.33

Record

12%

59-452 (511)

38791873984189

FORZE Reload

Invested

$146.59

Value

$137.74

PnL

+$2.74

Record

48%

733-802 (1535)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$61.94

Value

$64.63

PnL

+$2.69

Record

54%

1605-1351 (2956)

pauleta23CTR<$100

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$54.24

Value

$30.14

PnL

-$7.07

Record

20%

100-408 (508)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$0.78

Record

40%

3003-4412 (7415)

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FORZE Reload wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.