Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Team Falcons, while the market favors FaZe (55%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Team Falcons (57%) · Team Falcons at 46¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Team Falcons
7
Team Falcons 57%
$12.0K
-$6.31
45.2¢ → 45.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Falcons at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors FaZe 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Team Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | FaZeavg 55¢ | $10.0K | $5.5K | -$50.02 | 52% 1583-1474 (3057) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR | Team Falconsavg 45¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | +$49.61 | 50% 7355-7474 (14829) |
 JohnLKellyJrCTR | Team Falconsavg 46¢ | $3.0K | $1.4K | -$15 | 53% 1294-1169 (2463) |
 LaminionYamalCTR | Team Falconsavg 44¢ | $288.36 | $294.91 | +$9.83 | 44% 1849-2359 (4208) |
MR MrConsistency | FaZeavg 56¢ | $357.13 | $194.64 | -$5.36 | 39% 573-884 (1457) |
SP spartachio | FaZeavg 53¢ | $156.28 | $162.17 | +$4.42 | 48% 706-768 (1474) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Team Falconsavg 44.5¢ | $19.99 | $9.09 | +$0.2 | 50% 19935-20301 (40236) |
Invested
$10,004.99
Value
$5.5K
PnL
-$50.02
Record
52%
1583-1474 (3057)
Invested
$4,464.52
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$49.61
Record
50%
7355-7474 (14829)
JohnLKellyJrCTRInvested
$3,000
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$15
Record
53%
1294-1169 (2463)
LaminionYamalCTRInvested
$288.36
Value
$294.91
PnL
+$9.83
Record
44%
1849-2359 (4208)
Invested
$357.13
Value
$194.64
PnL
-$5.36
Record
39%
573-884 (1457)
Invested
$156.28
Value
$162.17
PnL
+$4.42
Record
48%
706-768 (1474)
Invested
$19.99
Value
$9.09
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
19935-20301 (40236)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.