Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold eSuba, while the market favors The Chosen Few (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs The Chosen Few (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold eSuba (60%) · eSuba at 50¢ · $672 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
eSuba
5
eSuba 60%
2 arb excluded
$672.39
-$4.99
Research grade
NeutraleSuba at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors The Chosen Few 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on eSuba. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 319113331313111ARB<$100 | The Chosen Fewavg 61.6¢ | $352.09 | $386.52 | +$34.42 | 54% 75-64 (139) |
| └ eSuba leg | eSubaavg 32.8¢ | $140.06 | $217.74 | +$77.68 | |
| └ The Chosen Few leg | The Chosen Fewavg 61.6¢ | $212.03 | $168.78 | -$43.26 | |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100 | The Chosen Fewavg 59.4¢ | $189.11 | $191.6 | +$2.48 | 64% 63-35 (98) |
| └ The Chosen Few leg | The Chosen Fewavg 59.4¢ | $100.22 | $107.2 | +$6.98 | |
| └ eSuba leg | eSubaavg 38.4¢ | $88.9 | $84.4 | -$4.5 | |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | eSubaavg 55¢ | $54.79 | $50.78 | -$4.01 | 49% 673-714 (1387) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | The Chosen Fewavg 55.6¢ | $25.1 | $25 | -$0.1 | 60% 648-431 (1079) |
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100 | eSubaavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $10.2 | -$0.6 | 64% 267-152 (419) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | The Chosen Fewavg 66¢ | $4.55 | $4.45 | -$0.1 | 62% 1325-796 (2121) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | eSubaavg 53.3¢ | $4.02 | $3.85 | -$0.17 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
Invested
$352.09
Value
$386.52
PnL
+$34.42
Record
54%
75-64 (139)
Both legs:
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100Invested
$189.11
Value
$191.6
PnL
+$2.48
Record
64%
63-35 (98)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.79
Value
$50.78
PnL
-$4.01
Record
49%
673-714 (1387)
Invested
$25.1
Value
$25
PnL
-$0.1
Record
60%
648-431 (1079)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$10.2
PnL
-$0.6
Record
64%
267-152 (419)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.45
PnL
-$0.1
Record
62%
1325-796 (2121)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$3.85
PnL
-$0.17
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.