Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Astralis, while the market favors Eternal Fire (50%). 0 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Astralis (36%) · Astralis at 50¢ · $217K held · ends Oct 30

Eternal Fire50¢Astralis50¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Astralis

Consensus Traders

Astralis 36%

Total Value

$217.3K

Combined PnL

-$150.65

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 50¢

-20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAstralis at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Astralis

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Eternal Fire 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Eternal Fire50%

Astralis50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Astralis5 traders

Total Value$148.2K

Total Shares233,657

Combined PnL+$417.41

Eternal Fire9 traders

Total Value$69.0K

Total Shares183,712

Combined PnL-$568.06

Astralis — 36%Eternal Fire — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Astralis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Astralis) and the top 1000 (13 on Eternal Fire) disagree here.

whaleAstralis 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpAstralis 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEternal Fire 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedAstralis 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Eternal Fire 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	Astralisavg 62.3¢	$145.0K	$145.4K	+$363.91	50% 7298-7429 (14727)
LL lllllllIlll	Eternal Fireavg 37¢	$37.0K	$37.5K	+$500	54% 293-246 (539)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Eternal Fireavg 37.9¢	$12.1K	$12.0K	-$120	47% 2449-2746 (5195)
forsenxd	Eternal Fireavg 37¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$74.91	53% 1053-917 (1970)
JO JohnnyWins	Eternal Fireavg 42.9¢	$6.2K	$5.4K	-$782.61	42% 118-161 (279)
DumplingBMF	Eternal Fireavg 40.7¢	$4.9K	$4.5K	-$380	68% 1811-844 (2655)
HO Hongweiqian	Astralisavg 61.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$23.06	48% 224-241 (465)
Reformedx	Eternal Fireavg 37.4¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$5	52% 805-755 (1560)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	Eternal Fireavg 37¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$16.89	50% 339-333 (672)
poshposh	Eternal Fireavg 37.3¢	$345.83	$463	+$117.17	59% 9693-6689 (16382)
LU LuckyLoo	Eternal Fireavg 37.4¢	$387.55	$388.12	+$0.57	49% 12407-12722 (25129)
bernardi22	Astralisavg 58¢	$254.99	$274.78	+$19.78	56% 1258-978 (2236)
MA manoamano<$100	Astralisavg 56¢	$48.97	$55.05	+$6.08	51% 455-444 (899)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Astralisavg 55¢	$31.57	$36.14	+$4.57	50% 3763-3735 (7498)

jakepaulthegoat2008

Astralis

Invested

$144,995.09

Value

$145.4K

PnL

+$363.91

Record

50%

7298-7429 (14727)

lllllllIlll

Eternal Fire

Invested

$37,000

Value

$37.5K

PnL

+$500

Record

54%

293-246 (539)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Eternal Fire

Invested

$12,120

Value

$12.0K

PnL

-$120

Record

47%

2449-2746 (5195)

forsenxd

Eternal Fire

Invested

$5,548.15

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$74.91

Record

53%

1053-917 (1970)

JohnnyWins

Eternal Fire

Invested

$6,174.35

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$782.61

Record

42%

118-161 (279)

DumplingBMF

Eternal Fire

Invested

$4,880

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$380

Record

68%

1811-844 (2655)

Hongweiqian

Astralis

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$23.06

Record

48%

224-241 (465)

Reformedx

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,870

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$5

Record

52%

805-755 (1560)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$16.89

Record

50%

339-333 (672)

poshposh

Eternal Fire

Invested

$345.83

Value

$463

PnL

+$117.17

Record

59%

9693-6689 (16382)

LuckyLoo

Eternal Fire

Invested

$387.55

Value

$388.12

PnL

+$0.57

Record

49%

12407-12722 (25129)

bernardi22

Astralis

Invested

$254.99

Value

$274.78

PnL

+$19.78

Record

56%

1258-978 (2236)

manoamano<$100

Astralis

Invested

$48.97

Value

$55.05

PnL

+$6.08

Record

51%

455-444 (899)

NatoAlfista<$100

Astralis

Invested

$31.57

Value

$36.14

PnL

+$4.57

Record

50%

3763-3735 (7498)

Research grade

NeutralAstralis at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Astralis

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Eternal Fire 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Astralis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Astralis) and the top 1000 (13 on Eternal Fire) disagree here.

whaleAstralis 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpAstralis 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEternal Fire 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedAstralis 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Eternal Fire 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Astralis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.