Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (78%) · Eternal Fire at 56¢ · $71K held · ends Nov 15

Eternal Fire56¢100 Thieves44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eternal Fire

Consensus Traders

Eternal Fire 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$70.9K

Combined PnL

-$734.43

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 55.5¢

+5% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

14 of 18 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Eternal Fire56%

100 Thieves45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

100 Thieves4 traders

Total Value$21.8K

Total Shares67,055

Combined PnL$-11.4K

Eternal Fire14 traders

Total Value$47.9K

Total Shares68,254

Combined PnL+$10.7K

100 Thieves — 22%Eternal Fire — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+41 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

81% of non-arb traders are on Eternal Fire. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEternal Fire 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperEternal Fire 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrEternal Fire 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedEternal Fire 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eternal Fire 81% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tankfest2027CTR	100 Thievesavg 50.9¢	$31.6K	$20.2K	$-11.4K	— 6-12 (18)
LL lllllllIlll	Eternal Fireavg 49¢	$12.4K	$17.1K	+$4.7K	5% 12-210 (222)
DO Donghui	Eternal Fireavg 49¢	$9.8K	$13.5K	+$3.7K	54% 20-17 (37)
AA aaaa298	Eternal Fireavg 50.1¢	$6.5K	$4.6K	+$1.7K	1% 4-304 (308)
II iii252	Eternal Fireavg 56.4¢	$5.7K	$4.4K	+$1.2K	1% 3-421 (424)
PN pnhct	Eternal Fireavg 71.1¢	$14.0K	$3.2K	+$360.64	55% 24-20 (44)
JA JabJabichCTR	100 Thievesavg 30.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$85.07	35% 46-84 (130)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Eternal Fireavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$213.53	56% 4162-3255 (7417)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	100 Thievesavg 33.7¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	+$168.33	33% 300-622 (922)
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 33.7¢	$893.02	$941.81	+$48.79
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 65.8¢	$244.78	$239.94	+$119.54
PA panpidaras1	Eternal Fireavg 68.1¢	$1.3K	$999.12	+$102.29	16% 59-310 (369)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Eternal Fireavg 73¢	$6.5K	$900.95	$-1.0K	23% 69-232 (301)
CA calm919	Eternal Fireavg 82.4¢	$1,000	$819.08	-$180.92	21% 28-103 (131)
latvian.demon	Eternal Fireavg 62¢	$465	$506.25	+$41.25	13% 71-467 (538)
NO NotJump	Eternal Fireavg 59.2¢	$673.48	$276.73	+$7.54	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
poshposh	Eternal Fireavg 76.7¢	$189.59	$172.18	-$17.41	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
MR MrConsistencyCTR	100 Thievesavg 52¢	$200	$125	-$75	37% 38-65 (103)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Eternal Fireavg 64.5¢	$110.69	$124.47	+$13.78	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
LR lryyy<$100	Eternal Fireavg 78¢	$34.32	$34.32	+$0	46% 972-1163 (2135)
JO johnsonboyyCTR<$100	100 Thievesavg 48¢	$15.14	$6.94	-$8.2	47% 15-17 (32)

tankfest2027CTR

100 Thieves

Invested

$31,636.98

Value

$20.2K

PnL

$-11.4K

Record

—

6-12 (18)

lllllllIlll

Eternal Fire

Invested

$12,413.64

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

12-210 (222)

Donghui

Eternal Fire

Invested

$9,800

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

54%

20-17 (37)

aaaa298

Eternal Fire

Invested

$6,523.87

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

4-304 (308)

iii252

Eternal Fire

Invested

$5,665.62

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

3-421 (424)

pnhct

Eternal Fire

Invested

$14,048.85

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$360.64

Record

55%

24-20 (44)

JabJabichCTR

100 Thieves

Invested

$1,355.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$85.07

Record

35%

46-84 (130)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,089.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$213.53

Record

56%

4162-3255 (7417)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$2,281.42

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$168.33

Record

33%

300-622 (922)

Both legs:

100 Thieves$893.0233.7¢+$48.79

Eternal Fire$244.7865.8¢+$119.54

panpidaras1

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,300

Value

$999.12

PnL

+$102.29

Record

16%

59-310 (369)

TommyLeePeeca

Eternal Fire

Invested

$6,491.51

Value

$900.95

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

23%

69-232 (301)

calm919

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,000

Value

$819.08

PnL

-$180.92

Record

21%

28-103 (131)

latvian.demon

Eternal Fire

Invested

$465

Value

$506.25

PnL

+$41.25

Record

13%

71-467 (538)

NotJump

Eternal Fire

Invested

$673.48

Value

$276.73

PnL

+$7.54

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

poshposh

Eternal Fire

Invested

$189.59

Value

$172.18

PnL

-$17.41

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

MrConsistencyCTR

100 Thieves

Invested

$200

Value

$125

PnL

-$75

Record

37%

38-65 (103)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Eternal Fire

Invested

$110.69

Value

$124.47

PnL

+$13.78

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

lryyy<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$34.32

Value

$34.32

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

johnsonboyyCTR<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$15.14

Value

$6.94

PnL

-$8.2

Record

47%

15-17 (32)

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

14 of 18 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+41 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

81% of non-arb traders are on Eternal Fire. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEternal Fire 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperEternal Fire 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrEternal Fire 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedEternal Fire 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eternal Fire 81% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eternal Fire wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.