Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold 100 Thieves (54%) · 100 Thieves at 98¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 15

Eternal Fire3¢100 Thieves97¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

100 Thieves

Consensus Traders

100 Thieves 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 97.5¢

+31% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Neutral100 Thieves at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

100 Thieves

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Eternal Fire3%

100 Thieves98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

100 Thieves7 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares10,825

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Eternal Fire6 traders

Total Value$468.33

Total Shares2,610

Combined PnL+$3.7

100 Thieves — 54%Eternal Fire — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AA aaaa298	100 Thievesavg 79.3¢	$3.1K	$3.7K	+$620.55	1% 3-302 (305)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	100 Thievesavg 75.8¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$302.02	56% 4160-3248 (7408)
latvian.demon	100 Thievesavg 61.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$23.25	13% 70-466 (536)
PN pnhct	100 Thievesavg 89.4¢	$3.9K	$942.99	+$129.95	59% 24-17 (41)
II iii252ARB<$100	100 Thievesavg 94.5¢	$4.8K	$304.96	-$261.46	0% 2-419 (421)
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 94.5¢	$223.5	$225.82	$-1.3K
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 12.3¢	$215.55	$79.14	+$1.0K
alpheclabs2CTR	Eternal Fireavg 10.7¢	$203.64	$296.22	+$92.58	45% 363-445 (808)
lma0o0o0o	100 Thievesavg 57¢	$256.06	$253.82	-$2.25	52% 50-46 (96)
TO TommyLeePeeca	100 Thievesavg 86.2¢	$1.6K	$160.67	+$37.2	22% 65-231 (296)
NO NotJumpCTR	Eternal Fireavg 46.5¢	$430.8	$148.75	-$67.5	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
poshposh<$100	100 Thievesavg 54¢	$33.27	$48.23	+$14.97	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 13.6¢	$26.73	$8.86	-$17.86	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 11¢	$4.84	$6.82	+$1.98	45% 963-1156 (2119)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 43¢	$5	$5.05	+$0.06	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 14¢	$8.18	$2.62	-$5.56	39% 1554-2430 (3984)

aaaa298

100 Thieves

Invested

$3,126.16

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$620.55

Record

3-302 (305)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

100 Thieves

Invested

$2,523.43

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$302.02

Record

56%

4160-3248 (7408)

latvian.demon

100 Thieves

Invested

$1,548.25

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$23.25

Record

13%

70-466 (536)

pnhct

100 Thieves

Invested

$3,921.51

Value

$942.99

PnL

+$129.95

Record

59%

24-17 (41)

iii252ARB<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$4,834.71

Value

$304.96

PnL

-$261.46

Record

2-419 (421)

Both legs:

100 Thieves$223.594.5¢$-1.3K

Eternal Fire$215.5512.3¢+$1.0K

alpheclabs2CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$203.64

Value

$296.22

PnL

+$92.58

Record

45%

363-445 (808)

lma0o0o0o

100 Thieves

Invested

$256.06

Value

$253.82

PnL

-$2.25

Record

52%

50-46 (96)

TommyLeePeeca

100 Thieves

Invested

$1,601.48

Value

$160.67

PnL

+$37.2

Record

22%

65-231 (296)

NotJumpCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$430.8

Value

$148.75

PnL

-$67.5

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

poshposh<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$33.27

Value

$48.23

PnL

+$14.97

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$26.73

Value

$8.86

PnL

-$17.86

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

lryyyCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$4.84

Value

$6.82

PnL

+$1.98

Record

45%

963-1156 (2119)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.06

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$8.18

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$5.56

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

Research grade

Neutral100 Thieves at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

100 Thieves

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 100 Thieves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.