Counter-Strike: DimoniX Esports vs Spirit HU (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold DimoniX Esports (100%) · DimoniX Esports at 56¢ · $533 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
DimoniX Esports
5
DimoniX Esports 100%
$532.99
-$83.45
63.6¢ → 56¢
-12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDimoniX Esports at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on DimoniX Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | DimoniX Esportsavg 58.3¢ | $239.61 | $225.96 | -$13.65 | 47% 66-75 (141) |
38 38791873984189 | DimoniX Esportsavg 70¢ | $171 | $134.4 | -$36.6 | 48% 802-884 (1686) |
SH shiifoo | DimoniX Esportsavg 68.5¢ | $121.99 | $97.9 | -$24.09 | 62% 1297-779 (2076) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | DimoniX Esportsavg 62.7¢ | $70.86 | $62.15 | -$8.71 | 48% 414-448 (862) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | DimoniX Esportsavg 56.2¢ | $12.97 | $12.58 | -$0.39 | 50% 1393-1407 (2800) |
Invested
$239.61
Value
$225.96
PnL
-$13.65
Record
47%
66-75 (141)
Invested
$171
Value
$134.4
PnL
-$36.6
Record
48%
802-884 (1686)
Invested
$121.99
Value
$97.9
PnL
-$24.09
Record
62%
1297-779 (2076)
Invested
$70.86
Value
$62.15
PnL
-$8.71
Record
48%
414-448 (862)
Invested
$12.97
Value
$12.58
PnL
-$0.39
Record
50%
1393-1407 (2800)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.