Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold DNK, while the market favors Ducks (71%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Ducks vs DNK (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Group D

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold DNK (63%) · DNK at 29¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 12

Ducks71¢DNK29¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

DNK

Consensus Traders

DNK 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.8K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 29¢

-41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidDNK at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DNK

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Ducks 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ducks71%

DNK29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

DNK5 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares28,065

Combined PnL+$3.6K

Ducks3 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,556

Combined PnL$-1.0K

DNK — 63%Ducks — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EA 0xea29...71ecCTR	DNKavg 50¢	$13.4K	$16.7K	+$3.2K	—
LI Liquidifier	Ducksavg 67.1¢	$3.6K	$3.0K	-$318.9	13% 13-88 (101)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Ducksavg 50¢	$2.9K	$2.2K	-$692.32	51% 3766-3569 (7335)
BE BeastsCTR	DNKavg 33¢	$293.7	$551.8	+$258.1	— 1-8 (9)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	DNKavg 50¢	$262.5	$209.75	+$8.5	54% 419-356 (775)
└ DNK leg	DNKavg 50¢	$131.25	$157.5	+$26.25
└ Ducks leg	Ducksavg 50¢	$68.75	$52.25	-$17.75
TO topdogbigboiCTR	DNKavg 30.2¢	$78.98	$148.21	+$69.22	37% 524-898 (1422)
poshposhCTR<$100	DNKavg 29.5¢	$13.98	$29.43	+$15.45	47% 507-571 (1078)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	DNKavg 52.2¢	$10.31	$12.24	+$1.93	44% 372-476 (848)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ducksavg 67¢	$6.03	$3.42	-$2.61	49% 1071-1124 (2195)

0xea29...71ecCTR

DNK

Invested

$13,444.11

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

—

Liquidifier

Ducks

Invested

$3,646.22

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$318.9

Record

13%

13-88 (101)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Ducks

Invested

$2,884.69

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$692.32

Record

51%

3766-3569 (7335)

BeastsCTR

DNK

Invested

$293.7

Value

$551.8

PnL

+$258.1

Record

—

1-8 (9)

NotJumpARB<$100

DNK

Invested

$262.5

Value

$209.75

PnL

+$8.5

Record

54%

419-356 (775)

Both legs:

DNK$131.2550¢+$26.25

Ducks$68.7550¢-$17.75

topdogbigboiCTR

DNK

Invested

$78.98

Value

$148.21

PnL

+$69.22

Record

37%

524-898 (1422)

poshposhCTR<$100

DNK

Invested

$13.98

Value

$29.43

PnL

+$15.45

Record

47%

507-571 (1078)

lryyyCTR<$100

DNK

Invested

$10.31

Value

$12.24

PnL

+$1.93

Record

44%

372-476 (848)

Pan9X<$100

Ducks

Invested

$6.03

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$2.61

Record

49%

1071-1124 (2195)

Research grade

AvoidDNK at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

DNK

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Ducks 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DNK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.