Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Hype Tech (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Butterfly (44%) · Butterfly at 51¢ · $636 held · ends Nov 16

Butterfly51¢Hype Tech49¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Butterfly

Consensus Traders

Butterfly 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$636.38

Combined PnL

$36.69

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 50.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralButterfly at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Butterfly

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Butterfly51%

Hype Tech50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Butterfly4 traders

Total Value$351.55

Total Shares688

Combined PnL+$29.93

Hype Tech5 traders

Total Value$199.75

Total Shares420

Combined PnL+$6.76

Butterfly — 44%Hype Tech — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Butterfly. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHype Tech 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Butterfly 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Butterflyavg 45.8¢	$201.62	$219.98	+$18.36	54% 181-153 (334)
GA GaditimaCTR	Hype Techavg 53¢	$115.54	$115.54	-$0	49% 400-411 (811)
KA Kaczka<$100	Butterflyavg 47¢	$91	$96.85	+$5.85	10% 23-215 (238)
CR crabfavorARB<$100	Hype Techavg 41.3¢	$77.81	$85.08	+$7.28	58% 121-88 (209)
└ Hype Tech leg	Hype Techavg 41.3¢	$44.33	$57.5	+$13.16
└ Butterfly leg	Butterflyavg 56.4¢	$33.47	$27.59	-$5.88
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Hype Techavg 54¢	$33.48	$32.86	-$0.62	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
LR lryyy<$100	Butterflyavg 51¢	$23.89	$29.77	+$5.88	46% 998-1194 (2192)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Hype Techavg 31.8¢	$23.77	$27.25	+$3.48	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Hype Techavg 29¢	$14.5	$18.25	+$3.75	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Hype Techavg 38¢	$5.7	$5.85	+$0.15	46% 486-574 (1060)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Butterflyavg 50¢	$5.11	$4.95	-$0.16	40% 354-534 (888)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Butterfly

Invested

$201.62

Value

$219.98

PnL

+$18.36

Record

54%

181-153 (334)

GaditimaCTR

Hype Tech

Invested

$115.54

Value

$115.54

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

Kaczka<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$91

Value

$96.85

PnL

+$5.85

Record

10%

23-215 (238)

crabfavorARB<$100

Hype Tech

Invested

$77.81

Value

$85.08

PnL

+$7.28

Record

58%

121-88 (209)

Both legs:

Hype Tech$44.3341.3¢+$13.16

Butterfly$33.4756.4¢-$5.88

Pan9XCTR<$100

Hype Tech

Invested

$33.48

Value

$32.86

PnL

-$0.62

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

lryyy<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$23.89

Value

$29.77

PnL

+$5.88

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Hype Tech

Invested

$23.77

Value

$27.25

PnL

+$3.48

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Hype Tech

Invested

$14.5

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Hype Tech

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

46%

486-574 (1060)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$5.11

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.16

Record

40%

354-534 (888)

Research grade

NeutralButterfly at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Butterfly

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Butterfly. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHype Tech 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Butterfly 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Butterfly wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.