Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Butterfly, while the market favors BakS eSports (56%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs BakS eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Butterfly (73%) · Butterfly at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Butterfly45¢BakS eSports55¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Butterfly

Consensus Traders

Butterfly 73%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$49.79

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 44.5¢

-6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralButterfly at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Butterfly

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors BakS eSports 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Butterfly45%

BakS eSports56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BakS eSports3 traders

Total Value$909.81

Total Shares1,764

Combined PnL+$26.84

Butterfly8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,094

Combined PnL+$22.95

BakS eSports — 27%Butterfly — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	BakS eSportsavg 50¢	$866.76	$893.27	+$26.52	55% 177-144 (321)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	Butterflyavg 50¢	$500	$485	-$15	54% 59-50 (109)
alpheclabs2CTR	Butterflyavg 45.2¢	$383.45	$411.25	+$27.8	45% 366-448 (814)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Butterflyavg 46¢	$57.07	$64.84	+$7.76	49% 386-404 (790)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Butterflyavg 45¢	$39.11	$39.13	+$0.02	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Butterflyavg 38.4¢	$25.88	$27.66	+$1.78	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
PA Pan9X<$100	BakS eSportsavg 49.3¢	$14.73	$9.64	+$0.62	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Butterflyavg 42.2¢	$7.09	$8.15	+$1.06	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	BakS eSportsavg 48¢	$7.2	$6.9	-$0.3	46% 472-559 (1031)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Butterflyavg 60¢	$3.95	$3.19	-$0.76	62% 268-161 (429)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Butterflyavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.43	+$0.27	48% 2522-2734 (5256)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

BakS eSports

Invested

$866.76

Value

$893.27

PnL

+$26.52

Record

55%

177-144 (321)

JuiceFarmCTR

Butterfly

Invested

$500

Value

$485

PnL

-$15

Record

54%

59-50 (109)

alpheclabs2CTR

Butterfly

Invested

$383.45

Value

$411.25

PnL

+$27.8

Record

45%

366-448 (814)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$57.07

Value

$64.84

PnL

+$7.76

Record

49%

386-404 (790)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$39.11

Value

$39.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$25.88

Value

$27.66

PnL

+$1.78

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

Pan9X<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$14.73

Value

$9.64

PnL

+$0.62

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$7.09

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$1.06

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$7.2

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

46%

472-559 (1031)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$0.76

Record

62%

268-161 (429)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

Research grade

NeutralButterfly at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Butterfly

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors BakS eSports 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Butterfly wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.