Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold underw0rld, while the market favors BESTIA Academy (72%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs underw0rld (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold underw0rld (40%) · underw0rld at 28¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

BESTIA Academy72¢underw0rld28¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

underw0rld

Consensus Traders

underw0rld 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$78.48

Smart Money Entry

35.7¢ → 28.5¢

-20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Avoidunderw0rld at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

underw0rld

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors BESTIA Academy 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

BESTIA Academy72%

underw0rld28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

underw0rld4 traders

Total Value$484.09

Total Shares1,645

Combined PnL-$106.1

BESTIA Academy6 traders

Total Value$171.29

Total Shares224

Combined PnL+$27.62

underw0rld — 40%BESTIA Academy — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on underw0rld. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on underw0rld) and the top 1000 (9 on BESTIA Academy) disagree here.

sharpunderw0rld 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBESTIA Academy 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedunderw0rld 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BESTIA Academy 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	BESTIA Academyavg 57.3¢	$788.71	$863.49	+$74.78	33% 19-38 (57)
└ BESTIA Academy leg	BESTIA Academyavg 57.3¢	$553.42	$681.34	+$127.92
└ underw0rld leg	underw0rldavg 38.1¢	$235.29	$182.15	-$53.14
BI BillBenter2026CTR	underw0rldavg 40.3¢	$432.43	$305.57	-$126.86	13% 27-174 (201)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	underw0rldavg 22.5¢	$93.64	$127.08	+$33.44	52% 12-11 (23)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	BESTIA Academyavg 50¢	$37.5	$53.63	+$16.13	31% 60-136 (196)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	underw0rldavg 39¢	$59.85	$50.64	-$12.28	50% 14-14 (28)
CI cigarettes<$100	BESTIA Academyavg 43¢	$41	$50	+$9	38% 88-145 (233)
BI biying88888<$100	BESTIA Academyavg 73¢	$37.23	$35.19	-$2.04	23% 30-101 (131)
GA Gaditima<$100	BESTIA Academyavg 47¢	$10.75	$15.33	+$5.03	47% 28-32 (60)
PA Pan9X<$100	BESTIA Academyavg 76.5¢	$20	$13.8	-$1.5	47% 166-184 (350)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	BESTIA Academyavg 47¢	$2.35	$3.35	+$1	—
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	underw0rldavg 43¢	$1.2	$0.8	-$0.4	52% 236-219 (455)

319113331313111ARB<$100

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$788.71

Value

$863.49

PnL

+$74.78

Record

33%

19-38 (57)

Both legs:

BESTIA Academy$553.4257.3¢+$127.92

underw0rld$235.2938.1¢-$53.14

BillBenter2026CTR

underw0rld

Invested

$432.43

Value

$305.57

PnL

-$126.86

Record

13%

27-174 (201)

glennyorkshireCTR

underw0rld

Invested

$93.64

Value

$127.08

PnL

+$33.44

Record

52%

12-11 (23)

omnibus-076daa<$100

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$37.5

Value

$53.63

PnL

+$16.13

Record

31%

60-136 (196)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

underw0rld

Invested

$59.85

Value

$50.64

PnL

-$12.28

Record

50%

14-14 (28)

cigarettes<$100

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$41

Value

$50

PnL

+$9

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

biying88888<$100

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$37.23

Value

$35.19

PnL

-$2.04

Record

23%

30-101 (131)

Gaditima<$100

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$10.75

Value

$15.33

PnL

+$5.03

Record

47%

28-32 (60)

Pan9X<$100

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$20

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$1.5

Record

47%

166-184 (350)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$2.35

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$1

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR<$100

underw0rld

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

236-219 (455)

Research grade

Avoidunderw0rld at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

underw0rld

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors BESTIA Academy 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on underw0rld. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on underw0rld) and the top 1000 (9 on BESTIA Academy) disagree here.

sharpunderw0rld 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBESTIA Academy 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedunderw0rld 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BESTIA Academy 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that underw0rld wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.