Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Brute, while the market favors ILLYRIANS (55%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: Brute vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Brute (83%) · Brute at 45¢ · $491 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Brute
6
Brute 83%
$491.06
$25.59
62.3¢ → 45¢
-28% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBrute at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors ILLYRIANS 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Bruteavg 64.8¢ | $233.87 | $243.49 | +$9.63 | 48% 721-776 (1497) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Bruteavg 67.2¢ | $97.47 | $97.83 | +$0.36 | 50% 29-29 (58) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Bruteavg 51.1¢ | $79.57 | $89.56 | +$9.99 | 52% 5301-4808 (10109) |
LR lryyy<$100 | ILLYRIANSavg 48.2¢ | $24.44 | $23.28 | -$1.16 | 50% 127-128 (255) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bruteavg 64.7¢ | $22.17 | $23.11 | +$0.94 | 50% 1378-1396 (2774) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bruteavg 62.4¢ | $75.81 | $13.78 | +$5.82 | 48% 406-439 (845) |
Invested
$233.87
Value
$243.49
PnL
+$9.63
Record
48%
721-776 (1497)
Invested
$97.47
Value
$97.83
PnL
+$0.36
Record
50%
29-29 (58)
Invested
$79.57
Value
$89.56
PnL
+$9.99
Record
52%
5301-4808 (10109)
Invested
$24.44
Value
$23.28
PnL
-$1.16
Record
50%
127-128 (255)
Invested
$22.17
Value
$23.11
PnL
+$0.94
Record
50%
1378-1396 (2774)
Invested
$75.81
Value
$13.78
PnL
+$5.82
Record
48%
406-439 (845)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.