Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team cutierover, while the market favors Team Bratishkin (87%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Team Bratishkin vs Team cutierover (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group B

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Team cutierover (70%) · Team cutierover at 14¢ · $955 held · ends Nov 15

Team Bratishkin87¢Team cutierover13¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team cutierover

Consensus Traders

Team cutierover 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$955.42

Combined PnL

-$357.83

Smart Money Entry

29.2¢ → 13.5¢

-54% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam cutierover at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team cutierover

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Team Bratishkin 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Bratishkin87%

Team cutierover14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Bratishkin3 traders

Total Value$569.08

Total Shares624

Combined PnL+$37.94

Team cutierover7 traders

Total Value$288.51

Total Shares2,312

Combined PnL-$395.77

Team Bratishkin — 30%Team cutierover — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Team cutierover. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam cutierover 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Team cutierover 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	Team Bratishkinavg 73.4¢	$249.6	$295.75	+$46.14	35% 46-84 (130)
NO NotJump	Team Bratishkinavg 50¢	$262.5	$254.63	-$7.87	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
iceblue-CTR	Team cutieroveravg 29.8¢	$369.93	$148.94	-$220.99	42% 36-49 (85)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Team cutieroveravg 24.7¢	$156.39	$97.82	-$58.57	55% 203-164 (367)
└ Team cutierover leg	Team cutieroveravg 24.7¢	$116.73	$56.76	-$59.97
└ Team Bratishkin leg	Team Bratishkinavg 85¢	$39.67	$41.07	+$1.4
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Team cutieroveravg 28.5¢	$135.91	$57.22	-$78.68	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
CI cigarettesCTR	Team cutieroveravg 29¢	$108.78	$45.01	-$63.77	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
SU suntori<$100	Team Bratishkinavg 87¢	$19.04	$18.71	-$0.33	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Team cutieroveravg 30.7¢	$22.91	$15.73	-$5.26	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Team cutieroveravg 28¢	$28	$12	-$16	49% 386-404 (790)
poshposhCTR<$100	Team cutieroveravg 26¢	$16.93	$7.81	-$9.12	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Team cutieroveravg 25¢	$3.75	$1.8	-$1.95	46% 472-559 (1031)

JabJabich

Team Bratishkin

Invested

$249.6

Value

$295.75

PnL

+$46.14

Record

35%

46-84 (130)

NotJump

Team Bratishkin

Invested

$262.5

Value

$254.63

PnL

-$7.87

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

iceblue-CTR

Team cutierover

Invested

$369.93

Value

$148.94

PnL

-$220.99

Record

42%

36-49 (85)

319113331313111ARB<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$156.39

Value

$97.82

PnL

-$58.57

Record

55%

203-164 (367)

Both legs:

Team cutierover$116.7324.7¢-$59.97

Team Bratishkin$39.6785¢+$1.4

topdogbigboiCTR

Team cutierover

Invested

$135.91

Value

$57.22

PnL

-$78.68

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

cigarettesCTR

Team cutierover

Invested

$108.78

Value

$45.01

PnL

-$63.77

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

suntori<$100

Team Bratishkin

Invested

$19.04

Value

$18.71

PnL

-$0.33

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$22.91

Value

$15.73

PnL

-$5.26

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$28

Value

$12

PnL

-$16

Record

49%

386-404 (790)

poshposhCTR<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$16.93

Value

$7.81

PnL

-$9.12

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$3.75

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$1.95

Record

46%

472-559 (1031)

Research grade

AvoidTeam cutierover at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Team cutierover

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Team Bratishkin 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Team cutierover. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam cutierover 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Team cutierover 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team cutierover wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.