Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs OG (BO1) - Circuito Retake Group D

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold BC.Game Esports (60%) · BC.Game Esports at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30

BC.Game Esports69¢OG31¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BC.Game Esports

Consensus Traders

BC.Game Esports 60%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$6.29

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 68.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBC.Game Esports at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BC.Game Esports

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BC.Game Esports69%

OG32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BC.Game Esports3 traders

Total Value$818.6

Total Shares1,186

Combined PnL+$0.43

OG2 traders

Total Value$782.05

Total Shares2,503

Combined PnL-$6.73

BC.Game Esports — 60%OG — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
hasobidale	BC.Game Esportsavg 69¢	$800.4	$800.4	-$0	66% 220-111 (331)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	OGavg 32¢	$410.48	$397.65	-$12.83	50% 7307-7436 (14743)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	OGavg 31¢	$378.3	$384.4	+$6.1	55% 299-249 (548)
AS astapzippo<$100	BC.Game Esportsavg 67¢	$11.39	$11.73	+$0.34	56% 2142-1696 (3838)
38 38791873984189<$100	BC.Game Esportsavg 68¢	$6.38	$6.47	+$0.09	46% 7940-9367 (17307)

hasobidale

BC.Game Esports

Invested

$800.4

Value

$800.4

PnL

-$0

Record

66%

220-111 (331)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Invested

$410.48

Value

$397.65

PnL

-$12.83

Record

50%

7307-7436 (14743)

lllllllIlllCTR

Invested

$378.3

Value

$384.4

PnL

+$6.1

Record

55%

299-249 (548)

astapzippo<$100

BC.Game Esports

Invested

$11.39

Value

$11.73

PnL

+$0.34

Record

56%

2142-1696 (3838)

38791873984189<$100

BC.Game Esports

Invested

$6.38

Value

$6.47

PnL

+$0.09

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

Research grade

NeutralBC.Game Esports at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BC.Game Esports

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BC.Game Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.