Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs PRIVATE - Map 2 Winner

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold PRIVATE (50%) · PRIVATE at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 16

Betclic Apogee Esports46¢PRIVATE54¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PRIVATE

Consensus Traders

PRIVATE 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$204.64

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 54.5¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPRIVATE at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PRIVATE

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Betclic Apogee Esports46%

PRIVATE55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PRIVATE4 traders

Total Value$668.24

Total Shares1,053

Combined PnL-$180.24

Betclic Apogee Esports4 traders

Total Value$482.55

Total Shares1,205

Combined PnL-$24.4

PRIVATE — 50%Betclic Apogee Esports — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on PRIVATE. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPRIVATE 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000PRIVATE 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	PRIVATEavg 62.9¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$79.36	56% 4181-3271 (7452)
└ PRIVATE leg	PRIVATEavg 62.9¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$31.2
└ Betclic Apogee Esports leg	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 34.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$110.57
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	PRIVATEavg 66.7¢	$874.9	$850.17	-$24.73	62% 207-129 (336)
└ PRIVATE leg	PRIVATEavg 66.7¢	$630.41	$586.38	-$44.03
└ Betclic Apogee Esports leg	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 35.2¢	$244.49	$263.79	+$19.3
KA Kaczka	PRIVATEavg 54¢	$283.01	$288.25	+$5.24	10% 23-215 (238)
NO NotJump	PRIVATEavg 50¢	$262.5	$229.38	+$0.62	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 46¢	$248.73	$205.47	-$43.26	46% 653-760 (1413)
31 319113331313111	PRIVATEavg 73.7¢	$1.3K	$144.22	-$187.5	55% 211-171 (382)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 40¢	$119.23	$129.58	+$10.35	41% 744-1054 (1798)
CR crabfavorCTR<$100	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 36¢	$90	$95	+$5	58% 121-88 (209)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 42¢	$49	$52.5	+$3.5	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	PRIVATEavg 43¢	$5	$6.39	+$1.39	38% 3843-6310 (10153)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

PRIVATE

Invested

$3,180.24

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$79.36

Record

56%

4181-3271 (7452)

Both legs:

PRIVATE$2,116.0162.9¢-$31.2

Betclic Apogee Esports$1,043.534.5¢+$110.57

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

PRIVATE

Invested

$874.9

Value

$850.17

PnL

-$24.73

Record

62%

207-129 (336)

Both legs:

PRIVATE$630.4166.7¢-$44.03

Betclic Apogee Esports$244.4935.2¢+$19.3

Kaczka

PRIVATE

Invested

$283.01

Value

$288.25

PnL

+$5.24

Record

10%

23-215 (238)

NotJump

PRIVATE

Invested

$262.5

Value

$229.38

PnL

+$0.62

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$248.73

Value

$205.47

PnL

-$43.26

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

319113331313111

PRIVATE

Invested

$1,254.02

Value

$144.22

PnL

-$187.5

Record

55%

211-171 (382)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$119.23

Value

$129.58

PnL

+$10.35

Record

41%

744-1054 (1798)

crabfavorCTR<$100

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$90

Value

$95

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

121-88 (209)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$49

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

PRIVATE

Invested

Value

$6.39

PnL

+$1.39

Record

38%

3843-6310 (10153)

Research grade

NeutralPRIVATE at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

PRIVATE

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on PRIVATE. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPRIVATE 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000PRIVATE 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PRIVATE wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.