Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs PRIVATE (BO3) - CCT Europe Playoffs

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold PRIVATE (44%) · PRIVATE at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16

Betclic Apogee Esports47¢PRIVATE53¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PRIVATE

Consensus Traders

PRIVATE 44%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$127.82

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 53¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPRIVATE at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PRIVATE

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Betclic Apogee Esports47%

PRIVATE53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PRIVATE4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,213

Combined PnL+$133.45

Betclic Apogee Esports5 traders

Total Value$321.97

Total Shares621

Combined PnL-$5.63

PRIVATE — 44%Betclic Apogee Esports — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on PRIVATE. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBetclic Apogee Esports 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Betclic Apogee Esports 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	PRIVATEavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$51.69	56% 394-311 (705)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	PRIVATEavg 46.4¢	$742.6	$816.96	+$74.37	55% 174-142 (316)
GA GaditimaCTR	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 53¢	$214.75	$210.67	-$4.09	49% 367-387 (754)
MA manoamano	PRIVATEavg 51.5¢	$195.4	$193.52	-$1.88	56% 43-34 (77)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 47.8¢	$74.33	$75.56	+$1.24	39% 1502-2375 (3877)
JU JuiceFarm<$100	PRIVATEavg 41¢	$54.28	$63.54	+$9.27	54% 58-50 (108)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 57¢	$30.87	$28.16	-$2.71	48% 3854-4218 (8072)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.15	-$0.05	48% 2465-2697 (5162)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 52¢	$2.45	$2.43	-$0.02	49% 4560-4822 (9382)

Wiretransferxyz

PRIVATE

Invested

$2,549.02

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$51.69

Record

56%

394-311 (705)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

PRIVATE

Invested

$742.6

Value

$816.96

PnL

+$74.37

Record

55%

174-142 (316)

GaditimaCTR

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$214.75

Value

$210.67

PnL

-$4.09

Record

49%

367-387 (754)

manoamano

PRIVATE

Invested

$195.4

Value

$193.52

PnL

-$1.88

Record

56%

43-34 (77)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$74.33

Value

$75.56

PnL

+$1.24

Record

39%

1502-2375 (3877)

JuiceFarm<$100

PRIVATE

Invested

$54.28

Value

$63.54

PnL

+$9.27

Record

54%

58-50 (108)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$30.87

Value

$28.16

PnL

-$2.71

Record

48%

3854-4218 (8072)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2465-2697 (5162)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

4560-4822 (9382)

Research grade

NeutralPRIVATE at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

PRIVATE

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on PRIVATE. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBetclic Apogee Esports 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Betclic Apogee Esports 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PRIVATE wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.