Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Playoffs
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Betclic Apogee Esports (75%) · Betclic Apogee Esports at 51¢ · $56K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Betclic Apogee Esports
4
Betclic Apogee Esports 75%
$55.7K
$1.3K
50.1¢ → 51¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBetclic Apogee Esports at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlll | Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 50¢ | $89.5K | $46.1K | +$1.3K | 54% 305-262 (567) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008 | Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 51¢ | $6.7K | $6.7K | +$0 | 50% 7330-7454 (14784) |
NO nobody2somebodyCTR | Phantomavg 49¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$0 | 52% 634-597 (1231) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 50.4¢ | $3.59 | $3.63 | +$0.01 | 53% 5577-5013 (10590) |
Invested
$89,504.36
Value
$46.1K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
54%
305-262 (567)
Invested
$6,691.25
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7330-7454 (14784)
Invested
$2,940
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
634-597 (1231)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.59
Value
$3.63
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
5577-5013 (10590)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.