Counter-Strike: BARCA vs BORRACHEIROS (BO3) - CCT South America Playoffs

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold BARCA (33%) · BARCA at 88¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

BARCA88¢BORRACHEIROS12¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BARCA

Consensus Traders

BARCA 33%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$152.96

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 88¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBARCA at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BARCA

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

BARCA88%

BORRACHEIROS12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BARCA3 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,920

Combined PnL+$198.03

BORRACHEIROS6 traders

Total Value$258.29

Total Shares1,974

Combined PnL-$45.06

BARCA — 33%BORRACHEIROS — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on BARCA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBORRACHEIROS 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000BORRACHEIROS 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	BARCAavg 85¢	$5.4K	$5.6K	+$192.91	56% 156-125 (281)
KA Kaczka	BARCAavg 87.5¢	$295	$296.64	+$1.64	2% 3-176 (179)
XT xtxpleasecallme	BARCAavg 87¢	$199.99	$203.46	+$3.47	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 15.1¢	$99.76	$85.8	-$13.96	37% 659-1143 (1802)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 14¢	$76.29	$68.12	-$8.17	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 17.2¢	$51.26	$44.73	-$6.54	47% 226-251 (477)
GT gt7238CTR<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 16¢	$58.4	$43.8	-$14.6	7% 35-480 (515)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 16.7¢	$15.33	$13.76	-$1.57	46% 219-260 (479)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 16.6¢	$2.31	$2.09	-$0.22	49% 1307-1356 (2663)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

BARCA

Invested

$5,397.58

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$192.91

Record

56%

156-125 (281)

Kaczka

BARCA

Invested

$295

Value

$296.64

PnL

+$1.64

Record

3-176 (179)

xtxpleasecallme

BARCA

Invested

$199.99

Value

$203.46

PnL

+$3.47

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$99.76

Value

$85.8

PnL

-$13.96

Record

37%

659-1143 (1802)

cigarettesCTR<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$76.29

Value

$68.12

PnL

-$8.17

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

GaditimaCTR<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$51.26

Value

$44.73

PnL

-$6.54

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

gt7238CTR<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$58.4

Value

$43.8

PnL

-$14.6

Record

35-480 (515)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$15.33

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$1.57

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

Pan9XCTR<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.09

PnL

-$0.22

Record

49%

1307-1356 (2663)

Research grade

NeutralBARCA at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BARCA

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on BARCA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBORRACHEIROS 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000BORRACHEIROS 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BARCA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.