Map Handicap: BAKS (-1.5) vs The Last Resort (+1.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold BakS eSports (30%) · BakS eSports at 63¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 12

BakS eSports63¢The Last Resort37¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BakS eSports

Consensus Traders

BakS eSports 30%

Total Value

$31.4K

Combined PnL

$250.41

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 62.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

BakS eSports63%

The Last Resort38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BakS eSports3 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares35,662

Combined PnL+$477.59

The Last Resort7 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares24,285

Combined PnL-$227.18

BakS eSports — 30%The Last Resort — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperThe Last Resort 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrThe Last Resort 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000The Last Resort 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	BakS eSportsavg 61.1¢	$21.6K	$22.1K	+$479.14	54% 141-120 (261)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	The Last Resortavg 39¢	$5.8K	$5.6K	-$225	56% 385-301 (686)
VI vibing123CTR	The Last Resortavg 37¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$34.26	63% 1114-665 (1779)
SE sentrioCTR	The Last Resortavg 39¢	$403.1	$387.6	-$15.5	41% 543-780 (1323)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	The Last Resortavg 39¢	$312	$300	-$12	18% 198-893 (1091)
IW iWasEnoughCTR	The Last Resortavg 39¢	$175.02	$168.29	-$6.73	43% 10-13 (23)
LI Liquidifier	BakS eSportsavg 64¢	$125.58	$121.66	-$3.92	13% 13-88 (101)
RL RLWG<$100	BakS eSportsavg 60¢	$57	$59.38	+$2.38	66% 1731-892 (2623)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 40¢	$48.56	$45.53	-$3.03	52% 12-11 (23)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 37.5¢	$15.58	$16.41	+$0.83	40% 3249-4894 (8143)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

BakS eSports

Invested

$21,627.78

Value

$22.1K

PnL

+$479.14

Record

54%

141-120 (261)

WiretransferxyzCTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$5,850

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$225

Record

56%

385-301 (686)

vibing123CTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$2,535.55

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$34.26

Record

63%

1114-665 (1779)

sentrioCTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$403.1

Value

$387.6

PnL

-$15.5

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$312

Value

$300

PnL

-$12

Record

18%

198-893 (1091)

iWasEnoughCTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$175.02

Value

$168.29

PnL

-$6.73

Record

43%

10-13 (23)

Liquidifier

BakS eSports

Invested

$125.58

Value

$121.66

PnL

-$3.92

Record

13%

13-88 (101)

RLWG<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$57

Value

$59.38

PnL

+$2.38

Record

66%

1731-892 (2623)

manoamanoCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$48.56

Value

$45.53

PnL

-$3.03

Record

52%

12-11 (23)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$15.58

Value

$16.41

PnL

+$0.83

Record

40%

3249-4894 (8143)

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperThe Last Resort 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrThe Last Resort 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000The Last Resort 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BakS eSports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.