Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Honvéd (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold BakS eSports (71%) · BakS eSports at 78¢ · $434 held · ends Nov 5
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Neutral
BakS eSports
7
BakS eSports 71%
$433.75
-$17.42
76.9¢ → 77.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBakS eSports at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | BakS eSportsavg 74.6¢ | $243.18 | $238.82 | -$4.36 | 48% 7296-8001 (15297) |
KA KaczkaCTR<$100 | Honvédavg 33.6¢ | $80.53 | $72 | -$8.53 | 51% 466-449 (915) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F<$100 | BakS eSportsavg 83.2¢ | $58.94 | $54.53 | -$4.41 | 55% 234-188 (422) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | BakS eSportsavg 80¢ | $34.05 | $27.75 | +$0.51 | 48% 60745-65398 (126143) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | BakS eSportsavg 79.3¢ | $30 | $24.45 | +$0.65 | 49% 4461-4659 (9120) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Honvédavg 20.1¢ | $63.9 | $11.5 | -$1.34 | 50% 21104-21351 (42455) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | BakS eSportsavg 79.1¢ | $4.64 | $4.69 | +$0.05 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
Invested
$243.18
Value
$238.82
PnL
-$4.36
Record
48%
7296-8001 (15297)
Invested
$80.53
Value
$72
PnL
-$8.53
Record
51%
466-449 (915)
Invested
$58.94
Value
$54.53
PnL
-$4.41
Record
55%
234-188 (422)
Invested
$34.05
Value
$27.75
PnL
+$0.51
Record
48%
60745-65398 (126143)
Invested
$30
Value
$24.45
PnL
+$0.65
Record
49%
4461-4659 (9120)
Invested
$63.9
Value
$11.5
PnL
-$1.34
Record
50%
21104-21351 (42455)
Invested
$4.64
Value
$4.69
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.