Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold B8, while the market favors FaZe (81%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: B8 vs FaZe (BO3) - Tesla Cup Playoffs

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold B8 (27%) · B8 at 20¢ · $25K held · ends Oct 29

B820¢FaZe80¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

B8 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.1K

Combined PnL

$12.8

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 19.5¢

-58% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidB8 at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors FaZe 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

B820%

FaZe81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

B83 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares33,663

Combined PnL-$407.09

FaZe8 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares16,414

Combined PnL+$419.89

B8 — 27%FaZe — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	B8avg 46.2¢	$10.6K	$10.3K	-$280.81	50% 7297-7426 (14723)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	B8avg 45.1¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$13.28	54% 293-246 (539)
Satanishippie	FaZeavg 53¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$135.85	48% 306-330 (636)
SP spartachio	FaZeavg 53¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$88.38	48% 691-746 (1437)
VeryLucky888	FaZeavg 53.7¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	+$46.26	58% 41218-29884 (71102)
ColdW	FaZeavg 80¢	$571.31	$565.07	+$3.75	61% 2005-1295 (3300)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	FaZeavg 61.5¢	$564.46	$564.48	+$0.02	53% 2325-2060 (4385)
└ FaZe leg	FaZeavg 61.5¢	$341.45	$446.77	+$105.32
└ B8 leg	B8avg 36.9¢	$223.01	$117.71	-$105.3
hasobidaleCTR	B8avg 54.8¢	$630.5	$517.5	-$113	66% 211-109 (320)
LO lonmi2511	FaZeavg 51.6¢	$271.98	$348.09	+$76.11	63% 1100-658 (1758)
CA calculate10	FaZeavg 52.3¢	$487.46	$308.28	+$60.82	53% 1221-1077 (2298)
AM ameisgoat11	FaZeavg 73.8¢	$257.64	$261.45	+$3.81	47% 2164-2475 (4639)
OM omnibus-076daa	FaZeavg 52¢	$129.96	$134.86	+$4.9	49% 18820-19225 (38045)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Invested

$10,593.13

Value

$10.3K

PnL

-$280.81

Record

50%

7297-7426 (14723)

lllllllIlllCTR

Invested

$4,331.99

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$13.28

Record

54%

293-246 (539)

Satanishippie

FaZe

Invested

$3,600

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$135.85

Record

48%

306-330 (636)

spartachio

FaZe

Invested

$2,342

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$88.38

Record

48%

691-746 (1437)

VeryLucky888

FaZe

Invested

$1,866.62

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$46.26

Record

58%

41218-29884 (71102)

ColdW

FaZe

Invested

$571.31

Value

$565.07

PnL

+$3.75

Record

61%

2005-1295 (3300)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

FaZe

Invested

$564.46

Value

$564.48

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

2325-2060 (4385)

Both legs:

FaZe$341.4561.5¢+$105.32

B8$223.0136.9¢-$105.3

hasobidaleCTR

Invested

$630.5

Value

$517.5

PnL

-$113

Record

66%

211-109 (320)

lonmi2511

FaZe

Invested

$271.98

Value

$348.09

PnL

+$76.11

Record

63%

1100-658 (1758)

calculate10

FaZe

Invested

$487.46

Value

$308.28

PnL

+$60.82

Record

53%

1221-1077 (2298)

ameisgoat11

FaZe

Invested

$257.64

Value

$261.45

PnL

+$3.81

Record

47%

2164-2475 (4639)

omnibus-076daa

FaZe

Invested

$129.96

Value

$134.86

PnL

+$4.9

Record

49%

18820-19225 (38045)

Research grade

AvoidB8 at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors FaZe 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that B8 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.