Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Turma do Pagode, while the market favors Axorfy Gaming (100%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Axorfy Gaming vs Turma do Pagode - Map 1 Winner

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Turma do Pagode (50%) · Turma do Pagode at 0.1¢ · $633 held · ends Nov 14

Axorfy Gaming>99¢Turma do Pagode<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Turma do Pagode

Consensus Traders

Turma do Pagode 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$633.02

Combined PnL

-$61.2

Smart Money Entry

43.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTurma do Pagode at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Turma do Pagode

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Axorfy Gaming 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Axorfy Gaming100%

Turma do Pagode0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Turma do Pagode5 traders

Total Value$251.79

Total Shares873

Combined PnL-$29.84

Axorfy Gaming5 traders

Total Value$184.3

Total Shares194

Combined PnL-$31.35

Turma do Pagode — 50%Axorfy Gaming — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 46.2¢	$385.11	$196.93	-$188.17	57% 173-133 (306)
└ Axorfy Gaming leg	Axorfy Gamingavg 56.7¢	$70.58	$108.38	+$37.8
└ Turma do Pagode leg	Turma do Pagodeavg 46.2¢	$314.53	$88.56	-$225.97
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Turma do Pagodeavg 40.9¢	$183.22	$177.97	-$5.25	37% 1018-1700 (2718)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Axorfy Gamingavg 84.3¢	$520.01	$84.57	-$38.29	61% 156-101 (257)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 39¢	$13.77	$35.3	+$21.53	38% 534-877 (1411)
Future-Tarot-Trader<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 96¢	$85.97	$33.68	-$20.06	55% 141-117 (258)
poshposhCTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 39¢	$47.93	$26.6	-$21.33	48% 1095-1172 (2267)
38 38791873984189<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 48.5¢	$70.28	$26.45	+$5.17	48% 3199-3501 (6700)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 41.9¢	$27.96	$26.05	-$1.91	45% 281-340 (621)
NO NotJumpCTR	Turma do Pagodeavg 50¢	$262.5	$15.65	-$1.87	52% 812-742 (1554)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 43¢	$5	$5.52	+$0.52	39% 3641-5775 (9416)
CR crabfavor<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 80¢	$4	$4.3	+$0.3	58% 94-69 (163)

319113331313111ARB<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$385.11

Value

$196.93

PnL

-$188.17

Record

57%

173-133 (306)

Both legs:

Axorfy Gaming$70.5856.7¢+$37.8

Turma do Pagode$314.5346.2¢-$225.97

topdogbigboiCTR

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$183.22

Value

$177.97

PnL

-$5.25

Record

37%

1018-1700 (2718)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$520.01

Value

$84.57

PnL

-$38.29

Record

61%

156-101 (257)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$13.77

Value

$35.3

PnL

+$21.53

Record

38%

534-877 (1411)

Future-Tarot-Trader<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$85.97

Value

$33.68

PnL

-$20.06

Record

55%

141-117 (258)

poshposhCTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$47.93

Value

$26.6

PnL

-$21.33

Record

48%

1095-1172 (2267)

38791873984189<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$70.28

Value

$26.45

PnL

+$5.17

Record

48%

3199-3501 (6700)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$27.96

Value

$26.05

PnL

-$1.91

Record

45%

281-340 (621)

NotJumpCTR

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$262.5

Value

$15.65

PnL

-$1.87

Record

52%

812-742 (1554)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

Value

$5.52

PnL

+$0.52

Record

39%

3641-5775 (9416)

crabfavor<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

94-69 (163)

Research grade

AvoidTurma do Pagode at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Turma do Pagode

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Axorfy Gaming 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Turma do Pagode wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.