Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Turma do Pagode, while the market favors Axorfy Gaming (60%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Axorfy Gaming vs Turma do Pagode (BO3) - CCT South America Playoffs

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Turma do Pagode (63%) · Turma do Pagode at 40¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 14

Axorfy Gaming60¢Turma do Pagode40¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Turma do Pagode

Consensus Traders

Turma do Pagode 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$133.61

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 40¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralTurma do Pagode at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Turma do Pagode

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Axorfy Gaming 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Axorfy Gaming60%

Turma do Pagode40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Turma do Pagode10 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares27,628

Combined PnL+$23.67

Axorfy Gaming6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,231

Combined PnL+$109.93

Turma do Pagode — 63%Axorfy Gaming — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	Turma do Pagodeavg 40.9¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$129.42	56% 390-306 (696)
BA BabooouCTR	Turma do Pagodeavg 42¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$26.75	67% 16-8 (24)
alpheclabs2CTR	Turma do Pagodeavg 38¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$130.09	45% 281-340 (621)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FARB<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 39¢	$859.05	$890.47	+$31.41	55% 164-133 (297)
└ Turma do Pagode leg	Turma do Pagodeavg 39¢	$663.63	$681.1	+$17.47
└ Axorfy Gaming leg	Axorfy Gamingavg 56¢	$195.42	$209.36	+$13.94
JU JuiceFarm	Axorfy Gamingavg 50¢	$600	$696	+$96	59% 43-30 (73)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Axorfy Gamingavg 60¢	$480	$476	-$4	25% 340-1017 (1357)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Turma do Pagodeavg 39.8¢	$404.29	$405.85	+$1.56	37% 1016-1695 (2711)
latvian.demon	Axorfy Gamingavg 58¢	$237.8	$246	+$8.2	12% 61-456 (517)
GA Gaditima	Axorfy Gamingavg 60.7¢	$212.5	$215.25	+$2.75	48% 269-288 (557)
IW iWasEnoughCTR	Turma do Pagodeavg 40.9¢	$180.74	$176.86	-$3.88	44% 18-23 (41)
lma0o0o0o	Axorfy Gamingavg 58¢	$141.7	$144.14	+$2.44	53% 41-37 (78)
MA manoamanoCTR	Turma do Pagodeavg 43.3¢	$145.89	$136.46	-$9.43	55% 29-24 (53)
SH shiifoo	Axorfy Gamingavg 58¢	$131.71	$136.25	+$4.54	61% 1421-900 (2321)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 44¢	$44	$45	+$1	39% 3638-5770 (9408)
PA Pan9XCTR	Turma do Pagodeavg 39.5¢	$105.28	$31.27	+$4.38	50% 1583-1605 (3188)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 39¢	$28.61	$29.34	+$0.73	48% 3196-3499 (6695)
poshposhCTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 40¢	$15.07	$16.96	+$1.88	48% 1092-1167 (2259)

WiretransferxyzCTR

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$6,129.41

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$129.42

Record

56%

390-306 (696)

BabooouCTR

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$2,246.96

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$26.75

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

alpheclabs2CTR

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$1,977.43

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$130.09

Record

45%

281-340 (621)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FARB<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$859.05

Value

$890.47

PnL

+$31.41

Record

55%

164-133 (297)

Both legs:

Turma do Pagode$663.6339¢+$17.47

Axorfy Gaming$195.4256¢+$13.94

JuiceFarm

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$600

Value

$696

PnL

+$96

Record

59%

43-30 (73)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$480

Value

$476

PnL

-$4

Record

25%

340-1017 (1357)

topdogbigboiCTR

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$404.29

Value

$405.85

PnL

+$1.56

Record

37%

1016-1695 (2711)

latvian.demon

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$237.8

Value

$246

PnL

+$8.2

Record

12%

61-456 (517)

Gaditima

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$212.5

Value

$215.25

PnL

+$2.75

Record

48%

269-288 (557)

iWasEnoughCTR

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$180.74

Value

$176.86

PnL

-$3.88

Record

44%

18-23 (41)

lma0o0o0o

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$141.7

Value

$144.14

PnL

+$2.44

Record

53%

41-37 (78)

manoamanoCTR

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$145.89

Value

$136.46

PnL

-$9.43

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

shiifoo

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$131.71

Value

$136.25

PnL

+$4.54

Record

61%

1421-900 (2321)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$44

Value

$45

PnL

+$1

Record

39%

3638-5770 (9408)

Pan9XCTR

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$105.28

Value

$31.27

PnL

+$4.38

Record

50%

1583-1605 (3188)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$28.61

Value

$29.34

PnL

+$0.73

Record

48%

3196-3499 (6695)

poshposhCTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$15.07

Value

$16.96

PnL

+$1.88

Record

48%

1092-1167 (2259)

Research grade

NeutralTurma do Pagode at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Turma do Pagode

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Axorfy Gaming 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Turma do Pagode wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.