Counter-Strike: Axorfy Gaming vs MEIA NOITE - Map 2 Winner

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Axorfy Gaming (100%) · Axorfy Gaming at 91¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Axorfy Gaming91¢MEIA NOITE9¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Axorfy Gaming

Consensus Traders

Axorfy Gaming 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$856.02

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 90.5¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAxorfy Gaming at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Axorfy Gaming

6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Axorfy Gaming91%

MEIA NOITE10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Axorfy Gaming6 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,722

Combined PnL+$856.02

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Axorfy Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAxorfy Gaming 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Axorfy Gaming 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	Axorfy Gamingavg 65.2¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$367.93	55% 22-18 (40)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Axorfy Gamingavg 55.4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$64.77	62% 118-72 (190)
lma0o0o0o	Axorfy Gamingavg 48.8¢	$433.15	$679.32	+$246.17	47% 24-27 (51)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	MEIA NOITEavg 30.2¢	$321.51	$339.48	+$17.97	36% 559-993 (1552)
└ MEIA NOITE leg	MEIA NOITEavg 30.2¢	$229.74	$174.71	-$55.03
└ Axorfy Gaming leg	Axorfy Gamingavg 42.9¢	$91.77	$164.77	+$73
31 319113331313111	Axorfy Gamingavg 70.9¢	$1.8K	$334.59	+$161.79	57% 132-100 (232)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 50¢	$262.5	$254.63	-$7.87	54% 529-444 (973)
└ Axorfy Gaming leg	Axorfy Gamingavg 50¢	$131.25	$202.13	+$70.88
└ MEIA NOITE leg	MEIA NOITEavg 50¢	$131.25	$52.5	-$78.75
Future-Tarot-Trader<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 38¢	$12.87	$26.08	+$13.21	50% 103-104 (207)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 38¢	$2.09	$4.24	+$2.15	40% 3363-5001 (8364)

JohnLKellyJr

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$2,122.72

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$367.93

Record

55%

22-18 (40)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$1,036.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$64.77

Record

62%

118-72 (190)

lma0o0o0o

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$433.15

Value

$679.32

PnL

+$246.17

Record

47%

24-27 (51)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$321.51

Value

$339.48

PnL

+$17.97

Record

36%

559-993 (1552)

Both legs:

MEIA NOITE$229.7430.2¢-$55.03

Axorfy Gaming$91.7742.9¢+$73

319113331313111

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$1,804.04

Value

$334.59

PnL

+$161.79

Record

57%

132-100 (232)

NotJumpARB<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$262.5

Value

$254.63

PnL

-$7.87

Record

54%

529-444 (973)

Both legs:

Axorfy Gaming$131.2550¢+$70.88

MEIA NOITE$131.2550¢-$78.75

Future-Tarot-Trader<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$12.87

Value

$26.08

PnL

+$13.21

Record

50%

103-104 (207)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$2.09

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$2.15

Record

40%

3363-5001 (8364)

Research grade

NeutralAxorfy Gaming at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Axorfy Gaming

6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Axorfy Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAxorfy Gaming 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Axorfy Gaming 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Axorfy Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.