Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold MEIA NOITE, while the market favors Axorfy Gaming (68%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Axorfy Gaming vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - CCT South America Playoffs

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold MEIA NOITE (70%) · MEIA NOITE at 32¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Axorfy Gaming68¢MEIA NOITE32¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MEIA NOITE

Consensus Traders

MEIA NOITE 70%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$181.53

Smart Money Entry

35.2¢ → 32¢

-9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMEIA NOITE at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MEIA NOITE

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Axorfy Gaming 68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Axorfy Gaming68%

MEIA NOITE32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MEIA NOITE7 traders

Total Value$986.7

Total Shares3,024

Combined PnL-$151.27

Axorfy Gaming3 traders

Total Value$880.73

Total Shares1,315

Combined PnL-$30.27

MEIA NOITE — 70%Axorfy Gaming — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	MEIA NOITEavg 33¢	$620.85	$602.04	-$18.81	55% 148-120 (268)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Axorfy Gamingavg 67¢	$536	$536	-$0	19% 210-902 (1112)
GA Gaditima	Axorfy Gamingavg 69.1¢	$652.75	$309.19	-$37.69	46% 170-197 (367)
alpheclabs2CTR	MEIA NOITEavg 43.9¢	$216.11	$162.39	-$53.72	46% 206-242 (448)
38 38791873984189CTR	MEIA NOITEavg 34.4¢	$1.5K	$118.09	-$67.19	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
poshposhCTR<$100	MEIA NOITEavg 37.9¢	$45.84	$39.87	-$5.97	48% 590-645 (1235)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 53¢	$28.11	$35.54	+$7.43	66% 142-74 (216)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	MEIA NOITEavg 36¢	$30.6	$28.05	-$2.55	66% 1801-928 (2729)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	MEIA NOITEavg 33¢	$26.4	$26.4	+$0	40% 3331-4967 (8298)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	MEIA NOITEavg 34.9¢	$86.24	$9.85	-$3.03	49% 1088-1142 (2230)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$620.85

Value

$602.04

PnL

-$18.81

Record

55%

148-120 (268)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$536

Value

$536

PnL

-$0

Record

19%

210-902 (1112)

Gaditima

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$652.75

Value

$309.19

PnL

-$37.69

Record

46%

170-197 (367)

alpheclabs2CTR

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$216.11

Value

$162.39

PnL

-$53.72

Record

46%

206-242 (448)

38791873984189CTR

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$1,459.13

Value

$118.09

PnL

-$67.19

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

poshposhCTR<$100

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$45.84

Value

$39.87

PnL

-$5.97

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

thatsabing0<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$28.11

Value

$35.54

PnL

+$7.43

Record

66%

142-74 (216)

RLWGCTR<$100

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$30.6

Value

$28.05

PnL

-$2.55

Record

66%

1801-928 (2729)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$26.4

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

3331-4967 (8298)

Pan9XCTR<$100

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$86.24

Value

$9.85

PnL

-$3.03

Record

49%

1088-1142 (2230)

Research grade

NeutralMEIA NOITE at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

MEIA NOITE

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Axorfy Gaming 68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MEIA NOITE wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.