Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Aurora Gaming, while the market favors MOUZ (78%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Gaming (44%) · Aurora Gaming at 23¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Aurora Gaming
9
Aurora Gaming 44%
$17.4K
$-8.5K
62.1¢ → 22.5¢
-64% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidAurora Gaming at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR | Aurora Gamingavg 64¢ | $12.5K | $8.6K | $-3.9K | 50% 7297-7426 (14723) |
 RN1CTR | Aurora Gamingavg 59¢ | $7.2K | $2.8K | $-4.5K | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
 saintaphextwin | MOUZavg 37¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$116.65 | 38% 386-620 (1006) |
A8 a8999 | MOUZavg 36¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$32.1 | 44% 1082-1380 (2462) |
WO wokerjoesleeper | MOUZavg 35¢ | $524.99 | $532.49 | +$7.5 | 33% 6259-12975 (19234) |
LU LucasCosta. | MOUZavg 35¢ | $377.99 | $383.39 | +$5.4 | 41% 329-471 (800) |
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569<$100 | MOUZavg 36¢ | $79.56 | $78.46 | -$1.11 | 46% 899-1071 (1970) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Aurora Gamingavg 72¢ | $28.8 | $25.8 | -$3 | 47% 2163-2470 (4633) |
YI yishiwuchengCTR<$100 | Aurora Gamingavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.48 | -$0.07 | 51% 1786-1717 (3503) |
Invested
$12,468.71
Value
$8.6K
PnL
$-3.9K
Record
50%
7297-7426 (14723)
RN1CTRInvested
$7,247.6
Value
$2.8K
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
saintaphextwinInvested
$2,877.48
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$116.65
Record
38%
386-620 (1006)
Invested
$2,311
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$32.1
Record
44%
1082-1380 (2462)
Invested
$524.99
Value
$532.49
PnL
+$7.5
Record
33%
6259-12975 (19234)
Invested
$377.99
Value
$383.39
PnL
+$5.4
Record
41%
329-471 (800)
Invested
$79.56
Value
$78.46
PnL
-$1.11
Record
46%
899-1071 (1970)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$25.8
PnL
-$3
Record
47%
2163-2470 (4633)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.07
Record
51%
1786-1717 (3503)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
jakepaulthegoat2008
CTRAurora Gaming — $8.6K
RN1
CTRAurora Gaming — $2.8K
saintaphextwin
MOUZ — $2.8K
a8999
MOUZ — $2.3K
wokerjoesleeper
MOUZ — $532.49
LucasCosta.
MOUZ — $383.39
0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569
MOUZ — $78.46
ameisgoat11
CTRAurora Gaming — $25.8
yishiwucheng
CTRAurora Gaming — $2.48