Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alliance, while the market favors Noir Verse (100%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Alliance (40%) · Alliance at 0.1¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Alliance<1¢Noir Verse>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Alliance

Consensus Traders

Alliance 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$909.87

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidAlliance at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Noir Verse 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alliance0%

Noir Verse100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alliance4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,643

Combined PnL-$7.25

Noir Verse6 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,578

Combined PnL+$917.12

Alliance — 40%Noir Verse — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabichCTR	Allianceavg 54.6¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$558.95	34% 35-69 (104)
CR crabfavor	Noir Verseavg 57.1¢	$849.4	$1.5K	+$638.06	57% 102-77 (179)
TO topdogbigboi	Noir Verseavg 42¢	$522.3	$752.15	+$229.85	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
XJ xjansfsaCTR	Allianceavg 46¢	$867.58	$641.45	-$226.14	48% 32-35 (67)
31 319113331313111	Noir Verseavg 80.9¢	$3.5K	$515.99	-$46.3	56% 187-144 (331)
KA Kaczka	Noir Verseavg 55.4¢	$200	$274.21	+$74.21	6% 13-195 (208)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Allianceavg 50¢	$262.5	$241.5	-$21	52% 883-823 (1706)
└ Noir Verse leg	Noir Verseavg 50¢	$131.25	$144.37	+$13.12
└ Alliance leg	Allianceavg 50¢	$131.25	$97.13	-$34.12
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Noir Verseavg 86.4¢	$220.08	$37.39	+$18.61	61% 172-111 (283)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noir Verseavg 19¢	$3.06	$5.75	+$2.69	61% 1433-918 (2351)
lma0o0o0oCTR	Allianceavg 31.5¢	$326	$0.52	-$325.48	55% 45-37 (82)
Future-Tarot-TraderCTR<$100	Allianceavg 7.2¢	$48.25	$0.21	-$14.58	55% 152-123 (275)

JabJabichCTR

Alliance

Invested

$1,800.5

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$558.95

Record

34%

35-69 (104)

crabfavor

Noir Verse

Invested

$849.4

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$638.06

Record

57%

102-77 (179)

topdogbigboi

Noir Verse

Invested

$522.3

Value

$752.15

PnL

+$229.85

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

xjansfsaCTR

Alliance

Invested

$867.58

Value

$641.45

PnL

-$226.14

Record

48%

32-35 (67)

319113331313111

Noir Verse

Invested

$3,456.57

Value

$515.99

PnL

-$46.3

Record

56%

187-144 (331)

Kaczka

Noir Verse

Invested

$200

Value

$274.21

PnL

+$74.21

Record

13-195 (208)

NotJumpARB<$100

Alliance

Invested

$262.5

Value

$241.5

PnL

-$21

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

Both legs:

Noir Verse$131.2550¢+$13.12

Alliance$131.2550¢-$34.12

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Noir Verse

Invested

$220.08

Value

$37.39

PnL

+$18.61

Record

61%

172-111 (283)

shiifoo<$100

Noir Verse

Invested

$3.06

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$2.69

Record

61%

1433-918 (2351)

lma0o0o0oCTR

Alliance

Invested

$326

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$325.48

Record

55%

45-37 (82)

Future-Tarot-TraderCTR<$100

Alliance

Invested

$48.25

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$14.58

Record

55%

152-123 (275)

Research grade

AvoidAlliance at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Noir Verse 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alliance wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.