Counter-Strike: Alliance vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FaZe (86%) · FaZe at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
FaZe
7
FaZe 86%
$4.0K
-$398.96
67.4¢ → 100¢
+48% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralFaZe at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on FaZe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | FaZeavg 69.2¢ | $2.6K | $2.8K | +$192.74 | 52% 13467-12324 (25791) |
TE testBruno2 | FaZeavg 69.1¢ | $4.8K | $512.08 | -$464.78 | 57% 792-588 (1380) |
 poshposh | FaZeavg 65¢ | $326.07 | $372.45 | +$46.37 | 60% 9075-5994 (15069) |
CC ccllar | FaZeavg 50.1¢ | $115.44 | $230.26 | +$55.04 | 46% 392-464 (856) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | FaZeavg 57¢ | $67.26 | $117.94 | +$50.68 | 59% 29919-20640 (50559) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | FaZeavg 94¢ | $4.7 | $5 | +$0.3 | 36% 14556-26000 (40556) |
GT gt7238CTR | Allianceavg 38¢ | $279.67 | $0.37 | -$279.31 | 45% 579-703 (1282) |
Invested
$2,559.46
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$192.74
Record
52%
13467-12324 (25791)
Invested
$4,804.5
Value
$512.08
PnL
-$464.78
Record
57%
792-588 (1380)
poshposhInvested
$326.07
Value
$372.45
PnL
+$46.37
Record
60%
9075-5994 (15069)
Invested
$115.44
Value
$230.26
PnL
+$55.04
Record
46%
392-464 (856)
Invested
$67.26
Value
$117.94
PnL
+$50.68
Record
59%
29919-20640 (50559)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
36%
14556-26000 (40556)
Invested
$279.67
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$279.31
Record
45%
579-703 (1282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.