Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Four Magic - Map 2 Winner

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Alliance (54%) · Alliance at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 12

Alliance>99¢Four Magic<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alliance

Consensus Traders

Alliance 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 100¢

+32% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlliance at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alliance100%

Four Magic0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alliance7 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares8,351

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Four Magic6 traders

Total Value$293.84

Total Shares1,560

Combined PnL+$119.21

Alliance — 54%Four Magic — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Alliance. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFour Magic 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Four Magic 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	Allianceavg 75.3¢	$5.3K	$7.0K	+$1.7K	8% 3-35 (38)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Allianceavg 76.9¢	$647.74	$417.48	+$23.12	65% 101-54 (155)
31 319113331313111	Allianceavg 73.1¢	$766.76	$409.31	-$24.52	57% 110-82 (192)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Four Magicavg 50¢	$262.5	$257.09	-$5.41	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Alliance leg	Allianceavg 50¢	$131.25	$178.5	+$47.25
└ Four Magic leg	Four Magicavg 50¢	$131.25	$78.59	-$52.66
GT gt7238CTR	Four Magicavg 15¢	$80.99	$172.79	+$91.79	6% 28-462 (490)
poshposh	Allianceavg 80.4¢	$159.35	$134.79	-$24.56	47% 522-581 (1103)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Four Magicavg 13.1¢	$41.27	$101.12	+$59.85	37% 534-922 (1456)
Future-Tarot-Trader	Allianceavg 88.9¢	$697.88	$62.52	+$11.57	49% 89-91 (180)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Four Magicavg 24¢	$22.96	$19.6	+$2.64	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
LR lryyy<$100	Allianceavg 78.9¢	$13.87	$12.48	-$1.39	44% 384-486 (870)
SH shiifoo<$100	Allianceavg 87¢	$3.48	$2.72	-$0.76	62% 1362-828 (2190)
AO aomendushen008CTR<$100	Four Magicavg 3.6¢	$21.51	$0.3	-$21.2	2% 10-456 (466)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Four Magicavg 26¢	$9.13	$0.02	-$9.11	33% 302-622 (924)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Four Magicavg 31¢	$4.76	$0.01	-$4.75	47% 1583-1774 (3357)

JabJabich

Alliance

Invested

$5,309.69

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

3-35 (38)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Alliance

Invested

$647.74

Value

$417.48

PnL

+$23.12

Record

65%

101-54 (155)

319113331313111

Alliance

Invested

$766.76

Value

$409.31

PnL

-$24.52

Record

57%

110-82 (192)

NotJumpARB<$100

Four Magic

Invested

$262.5

Value

$257.09

PnL

-$5.41

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Alliance$131.2550¢+$47.25

Four Magic$131.2550¢-$52.66

gt7238CTR

Four Magic

Invested

$80.99

Value

$172.79

PnL

+$91.79

Record

28-462 (490)

poshposh

Alliance

Invested

$159.35

Value

$134.79

PnL

-$24.56

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

topdogbigboiCTR

Four Magic

Invested

$41.27

Value

$101.12

PnL

+$59.85

Record

37%

534-922 (1456)

Future-Tarot-Trader

Alliance

Invested

$697.88

Value

$62.52

PnL

+$11.57

Record

49%

89-91 (180)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Four Magic

Invested

$22.96

Value

$19.6

PnL

+$2.64

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

lryyy<$100

Alliance

Invested

$13.87

Value

$12.48

PnL

-$1.39

Record

44%

384-486 (870)

shiifoo<$100

Alliance

Invested

$3.48

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$0.76

Record

62%

1362-828 (2190)

aomendushen008CTR<$100

Four Magic

Invested

$21.51

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$21.2

Record

10-456 (466)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Four Magic

Invested

$9.13

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.11

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

suntoriCTR<$100

Four Magic

Invested

$4.76

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.75

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

Research grade

NeutralAlliance at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Alliance. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFour Magic 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Four Magic 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alliance wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.