Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold 9INE Academy, while the market favors Teletubisie (55%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: 9INE Academy vs Teletubisie (BO3) - United21 Group A
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 9INE Academy (40%) · 9INE Academy at 45¢ · $704 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
9INE Academy
5
9INE Academy 40%
$703.7
$22.33
40.5¢ → 45¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
Neutral9INE Academy at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Teletubisie 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on 9INE Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR | 9INE Academyavg 39.2¢ | $293.2 | $336.6 | +$43.4 | — |
FL Flaznorp | Teletubisieavg 52.6¢ | $156.16 | $160.34 | +$4.18 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR | 9INE Academyavg 43.4¢ | $141.98 | $147.33 | +$5.35 | 6% 27-440 (467) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Teletubisieavg 82.7¢ | $80.73 | $48.94 | -$25.84 | 49% 677-717 (1394) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Teletubisieavg 78.5¢ | $15.24 | $10.49 | -$4.75 | 62% 1325-798 (2123) |
Invested
$293.2
Value
$336.6
PnL
+$43.4
Record
—
Invested
$156.16
Value
$160.34
PnL
+$4.18
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$141.98
Value
$147.33
PnL
+$5.35
Record
6%
27-440 (467)
Invested
$80.73
Value
$48.94
PnL
-$25.84
Record
49%
677-717 (1394)
Invested
$15.24
Value
$10.49
PnL
-$4.75
Record
62%
1325-798 (2123)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.