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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Alliance — but Four Magic won instead.

Counter-Strike: Four Magic vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner

Resolved Four Magic. 23% of the top Polymarket traders held Alliance. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Alliance 18%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$-13.3K

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

3 of 13 top traders (23%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Four Magic100%

Alliance0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Four Magic10 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,331

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Alliance3 traders

Total Value$0.05

Total Shares23,468

Combined PnL$-14.3K

Four Magic — 77%Alliance — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboi	Four Magicavg 34.5¢	$286.9	$576.38	+$289.48	37% 657-1141 (1798)
31 319113331313111	Four Magicavg 58.7¢	$4.2K	$503.74	+$215.47	57% 150-113 (263)
poshposh	Four Magicavg 41.7¢	$244.43	$412.24	+$167.81	46% 781-902 (1683)
MaoZeDonK	Four Magicavg 46.8¢	$100	$213.74	+$113.74	56% 15-12 (27)
Future-Tarot-Trader	Four Magicavg 60.5¢	$620.9	$205.02	+$63.66	52% 120-113 (233)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Four Magicavg 50.1¢	$2.5K	$191.06	+$98.74	60% 133-87 (220)
LR lryyy	Four Magicavg 36.3¢	$62.61	$104	+$41.39	45% 593-733 (1326)
SH shiifoo<$100	Four Magicavg 30.9¢	$29.4	$95	+$65.6	62% 1394-871 (2265)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Four Magicavg 38¢	$11.3	$29.73	+$18.43	36% 432-771 (1203)
NO NotJumpCTR	Allianceavg 50¢	$262.5	$0.05	+$0	53% 631-566 (1197)
LI LiquidifierCTR	Allianceavg 41.3¢	$200.65	—	-$200.65	21% 25-96 (121)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Allianceavg 61.6¢	$14.1K	—	$-14.1K	48% 28-30 (58)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Four Magicavg 99¢	$274.23	—	+$2.49	82% 537-115 (652)

Invested

$286.9

Value

$576.38

PnL

+$289.48

Record

37%

657-1141 (1798)

319113331313111

Invested

$4,190.2

Value

$503.74

PnL

+$215.47

Record

57%

150-113 (263)

Invested

$244.43

Value

$412.24

PnL

+$167.81

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

Invested

$100

Value

$213.74

PnL

+$113.74

Record

56%

15-12 (27)

Future-Tarot-Trader

Invested

$620.9

Value

$205.02

PnL

+$63.66

Record

52%

120-113 (233)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Invested

$2,507.5

Value

$191.06

PnL

+$98.74

Record

60%

133-87 (220)

Invested

$62.61

Value

$104

PnL

+$41.39

Record

45%

593-733 (1326)

Invested

$29.4

Value

$95

PnL

+$65.6

Record

62%

1394-871 (2265)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$11.3

Value

$29.73

PnL

+$18.43

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

Invested

$262.5

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

Invested

$200.65

Value

—

PnL

-$200.65

Record

21%

25-96 (121)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Invested

$14,147.36

Value

—

PnL

$-14.1K

Record

48%

28-30 (58)

Invested

$274.23

Value

—

PnL

+$2.49

Record

82%

537-115 (652)

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

3 of 13 top traders (23%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x4b8a12c4...ccc4fe

Slug

cs2-4m1-all-2026-11-13-game1

Traders in this Market

topdogbigboi

Four Magic — $576.38

319113331313111

Four Magic — $503.74

poshposh

Four Magic — $412.24

MaoZeDonK

Four Magic — $213.74

Future-Tarot-Trader

Four Magic — $205.02

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Four Magic — $191.06

lryyy

Four Magic — $104

shiifoo

Four Magic — $95

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Four Magic — $29.73

NotJump

Alliance — $0.05

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